TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Daniel Zelezny vs Jachym Sebl 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Daniel Zelezny
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9118111210118117
Jachym Sebl
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Zelezny above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 98 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Zelezny 17–23 Jachym Sebl Daniel Zelezny has won 17 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:03What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sebl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-23 in 40
Sebl
Wrong
gap of 6 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezny 1540 vs Sebl 1658
Sebl
Wrong
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezny 80% vs Sebl 60%
Zelezny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezny 50% vs Sebl 70%
Sebl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezny +2 · Sebl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sebl) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezny 2.10 / Sebl 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Sebl)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13176259
Zelezny2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 15) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 8 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back25% 2 of 8
Sebl1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 82 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it98% 54 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it79% 66 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezny3wins
AwaySebl7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSebl leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezny66.7%2 of 3
AwaySebl85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezny3Sebl7n = 10Sebl took 7 of 10
S2Zelezny6Sebl4n = 10Zelezny took 6 of 10
S3Zelezny5Sebl5n = 10split evenly
S4Zelezny3Sebl6n = 9Sebl took 6 of 9
S5Zelezny2Sebl3n = 5Sebl took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZeleznySeblZ − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.143.3−4.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZeleznySeblBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 215 vs 305 / 63152.6%48.3%113 / 215 vs 305 / 631Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.236.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblZelezny 2.10/Sebl 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.4%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 11:25D. Zelezny3633111182J. Sebl50111189113
LSep 12 · 21:25D. Zelezny369101161J. Sebl4311129113
LSep 11 · 17:55D. Zelezny28561161J. Sebl4111118113
LSep 11 · 15:50D. Zelezny48101111792J. Sebl49126911113
LJun 1 · 16:50D. Zelezny28711371J. Sebl3811511113
WJan 24 · 12:25D. Zelezny48811612113J. Sebl46118111062
WJan 17 · 13:25D. Zelezny341111123J. Sebl2587100
LJan 10 · 16:55D. Zelezny521211101272J. Sebl561491210113
WAug 24 · 18:15D. Zelezny501111710113J. Sebl4559111282
LAug 24 · 15:40D. Zelezny311127111J. Sebl4051111133
D. Zelezny10
WSep 15 · 17:50T. Rein2.40920491D. Zelezny1.50111811113WSep 15 · 16:20T. Jr2.00119111122D. Zelezny1.73611913113LSep 15 · 15:50T. Rein2.7591311113D. Zelezny1.401111941WSep 15 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.361111123A. Jr3.0097100WSep 13 · 13:55L. Jirka2.07118641D. Zelezny1.6781111113WSep 13 · 13:25D. Zelezny1.731114113L. Rek2.0071280LSep 13 · 11:55L. Jirka2.20111156123D. Zelezny1.61671111102LSep 13 · 11:25J. Sebl1.57111189113D. Zelezny2.2533111182LSep 12 · 21:58D. Zelezny1.671011561M. Boltik2.1012811113LSep 12 · 21:25D. Zelezny1.839101161J. Sebl1.8311129113
J. Sebl10
WSep 22 · 15:20V. Koutnik1.61611491J. Sebl2.2011511113WSep 20 · 10:06J. Sebl1.57151111113J. Cousin2.251313941LSep 20 · 08:55J. Sebl1.59101111892Z. Muhlhauser2.07127811113LSep 20 · 07:55J. Sebl1.8591390V. Koutnik1.851115113WSep 20 · 06:55J. Sebl1.601114113J. Cousin2.2071280WSep 13 · 14:25L. Rek2.255540J. Sebl1.551111113WSep 13 · 12:55L. Jirka2.258720J. Sebl1.571111113LSep 13 · 12:25L. Rek2.50111189113J. Sebl1.5088111152WSep 13 · 11:25J. Sebl1.57111189113D. Zelezny2.2533111182WSep 12 · 21:25D. Zelezny1.839101161J. Sebl1.8311129113
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