TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Daniel Tuma vs Petr Zmuda 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Daniel Tuma
Home
1.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8118111181113––
Petr Zmuda
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tuma to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Tuma above · Petr Zmuda below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 81 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Daniel Tuma at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tuma 11–11 Petr Zmuda Dead even across their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Tuma beat Zmuda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Tuma
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-11 in 22
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1598 vs Zmuda 1578
Tuma
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 60% vs Zmuda 40%
Tuma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 60% vs Zmuda 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma +3 · Zmuda -2
Tuma
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tuma)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmuda form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 1.75 / Zmuda 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tuma)+1.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13174400
Tuma1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 127 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it93% 64 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it77% 95 of 123
Zmuda1.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 17 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back18% 5 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuma6wins
AwayZmuda4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTuma leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuma85.7%6 of 7
AwayZmuda100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma7Zmuda3n = 10Tuma took 7 of 10
S2Tuma2Zmuda8n = 10Zmuda took 8 of 10
S3Tuma6Zmuda4n = 10Tuma took 6 of 10
S4Tuma5Zmuda2n = 7Tuma took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTumaZmudaT − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.336.5+1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaZmudaBasisWin rate · lifetime775 / 1477 vs 124 / 24352.5%51%775 / 1477 vs 124 / 243Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaTuma 1.75/Zmuda 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 24:30D. Tuma4011711113P. Zmuda34711881
WSep 17 · 07:30D. Tuma531111812113P. Zmuda52913111092
LAug 22 · 09:00D. Tuma2551190P. Zmuda351113113
WAug 22 · 07:30D. Tuma4011116123P. Zmuda326511101
LAug 10 · 22:00D. Tuma27611100P. Zmuda361113123
WAug 1 · 18:00D. Tuma341111123P. Zmuda2385100
WAug 1 · 02:58D. Tuma4311811133P. Zmuda354119111
WAug 1 · 24:00D. Tuma3811511113P. Zmuda32811581
LJul 28 · 08:58D. Tuma51119111372P. Zmuda50411915113
LJul 28 · 07:30D. Tuma32791151P. Zmuda3611113113
D. Tuma10
WSep 22 · 01:30D. Tuma2.201111113A. Hlawatschke1.616580WSep 22 · 24:30P. Zmuda1.80711881D. Tuma1.9111711113WSep 21 · 23:30M. Vedmoch2.501011841D. Tuma1.5012911113LSep 21 · 22:30D. Tuma1.73118551R. Krejci2.0061111113LSep 21 · 21:28D. Tuma2.001177101T. Vinter1.7391111123WSep 21 · 20:00D. Tuma1.731111153J. Stolfa2.0098130WSep 21 · 19:30T. Vinter1.8381111111D. Tuma1.8311137133WSep 21 · 18:00D. Tuma2.1011119113T. Janata1.67791191LSep 21 · 02:30D. Tuma2.105770M. Chlebecek1.671111113LSep 21 · 01:30P. Pycha1.571111113D. Tuma2.259690
P. Zmuda10
LSep 22 · 02:00R. Krejci2.001111144113P. Zmuda1.7399161192LSep 22 · 24:30P. Zmuda1.80711881D. Tuma1.9111711113WSep 21 · 23:00P. Zmuda1.61111110113A. Hlawatschke2.20161261WSep 21 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.7311101191P. Zmuda2.0081213113LSep 21 · 03:30P. Zmuda1.871181891R. Krejci1.8341120113LSep 21 · 02:30R. Krejci2.251116510113P. Zmuda1.57614111242WSep 21 · 01:00V. Postelt2.00111171452P. Zmuda1.73871116113WSep 20 · 23:30P. Zmuda1.831411113D. Kouble1.8312940WSep 20 · 22:00P. Zmuda1.501111113J. Prokupek2.509870LSep 17 · 09:28P. Zmuda2.001181191M. Volf1.7313114113
Upcoming Matches
D. Tuma
Nothing scheduled
P. Zmuda
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