TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Petr Zmuda
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118117––––
Jaroslav Prokupek
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Jaroslav Prokupek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Petr Zmuda at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 3–1 Jaroslav Prokupek Jaroslav Prokupek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:55What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Zmuda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Zmuda
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1571 vs Prokupek 1480
Zmuda
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 60% vs Prokupek 40%
Zmuda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 80% vs Prokupek 50%
Zmuda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda -1 · Prokupek -3
Prokupek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Zmuda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 1.50 / Prokupek 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Zmuda)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13158908
Zmuda1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 17)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 53 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it83% 35 of 42
Prokupek2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 93 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeZmuda3wins
AwayProkupek1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderZmuda leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda2Prokupek2n = 4split evenly
S2Zmuda2Prokupek2n = 4split evenly
S3Zmuda3Prokupek1n = 4Zmuda took 3 of 4
S4Zmuda4Prokupek0n = 4Zmuda took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home375%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricZmudaProkupekZ − PBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match41.536.2+5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaProkupekBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 250 vs 667 / 139953.6%47.7%134 / 250 vs 667 / 1399Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaZmuda 1.50/Prokupek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 15 · 08:30P. Zmuda4181111113J. Prokupek35117891
WJul 14 · 11:00P. Zmuda4211911113J. Prokupek25511541
LJul 8 · 23:00P. Zmuda4036121272J. Prokupek5311111010113
WJul 5 · 07:30P. Zmuda43111110113J. Prokupek32941271
P. Zmuda10
LSep 17 · 09:28P. Zmuda2.001181191M. Volf1.7313114113WSep 17 · 08:30M. Volf1.671261071P. Zmuda2.10101112113LSep 17 · 07:30P. Zmuda1.83913111092D. Tuma1.831111812113WSep 17 · 06:30J. Stolfa1.8311711652P. Zmuda1.83611811113WSep 15 · 13:30P. Zmuda1.7311412123M. Vesely2.0061110101WSep 15 · 12:30K. Darin3.0010760P. Zmuda1.361211113WSep 15 · 11:30P. Zmuda1.5311127123J. Bresky2.3881011101WSep 15 · 10:30M. Vesely1.8312131241P. Zmuda1.83141510113WSep 15 · 09:30P. Zmuda1.43101211113T. Varnuska2.601210741WSep 15 · 08:30P. Zmuda1.5781111113J. Prokupek2.25117891
J. Prokupek10
LSep 20 · 03:00R. Pavelka1.7391111143J. Prokupek2.001158121LSep 20 · 02:00J. Trefny1.7311411143J. Prokupek2.009117121LSep 20 · 24:30J. Prokupek2.205750D. Kouble1.611111113WSep 19 · 23:00J. Prokupek2.501112113P. Budinsky1.5071060WSep 19 · 22:00R. Pavelka1.611165101J. Prokupek2.2061111123LSep 18 · 21:29R. Pavelka1.73116118113J. Prokupek2.0051121152LSep 18 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.91115671J. Dedek1.8071111113WSep 18 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.25881111113P. Budinsky1.5711117882WSep 18 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.73111141192J. Prokupek2.00139117113LSep 15 · 08:30P. Zmuda1.5781111113J. Prokupek2.25117891
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