TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135146
Played Sep 15Finished
Petr Zmuda
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11641112101210––
Michal Vesely
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 69.3% is still 69.3%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
69.3%
69.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Michal Vesely below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Petr Zmuda at 69.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 4–2 Michal Vesely Michal Vesely has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Zmuda beat Vesely 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:58What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zmuda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Zmuda
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1591 vs Vesely 1490
Zmuda
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 100% vs Vesely 20%
Zmuda
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 70% vs Vesely 30%
Zmuda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda +5 · Vesely -1
Zmuda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Zmuda) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vesely form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 1.73 / Vesely 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Zmuda)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135146
Zmuda1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 47 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it82% 31 of 38
Vesely2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 16 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back33% 6 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back20% 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeZmuda4wins
AwayVesely2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderZmuda leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmudan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVesely50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda2Vesely4n = 6Vesely took 4 of 6
S2Zmuda4Vesely2n = 6Zmuda took 4 of 6
S3Zmuda3Vesely3n = 6split evenly
S4Zmuda4Vesely2n = 6Zmuda took 4 of 6
S5Zmuda2Vesely1n = 3Zmuda took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricZmudaVeselyZ − VBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match43.841.3+2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaVeselyBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 249 vs 70 / 13153.8%53.4%134 / 249 vs 70 / 131Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaZmuda 1.73/Vesely 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.6%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 15 · 10:30P. Zmuda50141510113M. Vesely4112131241
WSep 15 · 07:00P. Zmuda47115119113M. Vesely4191131172
LSep 14 · 09:00P. Zmuda34911681M. Vesely3911611113
WSep 14 · 07:00P. Zmuda47591111113M. Vesely4411114992
LAug 12 · 14:30P. Zmuda44311811112M. Vesely49117117133
WJul 13 · 06:30P. Zmuda4171211113M. Vesely341110671
P. Zmuda10
WSep 15 · 12:30K. Darin3.0010760P. Zmuda1.361211113WSep 15 · 11:30P. Zmuda1.5311127123J. Bresky2.3881011101WSep 15 · 10:30M. Vesely1.8312131241P. Zmuda1.83141510113WSep 15 · 09:30P. Zmuda1.43101211113T. Varnuska2.601210741WSep 15 · 08:30P. Zmuda1.5781111113J. Prokupek2.25117891WSep 15 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.91115119113M. Vesely1.8091131172WSep 15 · 06:00T. Varnuska2.3871050P. Zmuda1.531112113LSep 14 · 09:00P. Zmuda1.73911681M. Vesely2.0011611113LSep 14 · 08:30P. Zmuda2.00411441V. Cermak1.7311811113WSep 14 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.67591111113M. Vesely2.1011114992
M. Vesely10
LSep 15 · 12:00J. Bresky2.20111155113M. Vesely1.6119111182WSep 15 · 11:00K. Darin2.759790M. Vesely1.401111113LSep 15 · 10:30M. Vesely1.8312131241P. Zmuda1.83141510113LSep 15 · 08:59M. Vesely1.448990J. Prokupek2.631111113LSep 15 · 08:00T. Varnuska2.10761111163M. Vesely1.67111169142LSep 15 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.91115119113M. Vesely1.8091131172WSep 15 · 06:30M. Vesely1.731111113J. Prokupek2.009580LSep 14 · 13:00V. Cermak1.831111113M. Vesely1.835460WSep 14 · 09:00P. Zmuda1.73911681M. Vesely2.0011611113LSep 14 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.67591111113M. Vesely2.1011114992
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