TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129697
Played Sep 15Finished
Kyryl Darin
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711911––––
Michal Vesely
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:21 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Vesely to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Michal Vesely below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Michal Vesely at 64.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 1–6 Michal Vesely Kyryl Darin has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:21What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vesely
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Vesely
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1501 vs Vesely 1488
Darin
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 60% vs Vesely 20%
Darin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 60% vs Vesely 30%
Darin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin +3 · Vesely -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Vesely) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vesely form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 2.75 / Vesely 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Vesely)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13129697
Darin2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 178 of 444
Down 0–1, comes back19% 49 of 254
Down 0–2, comes back6% 9 of 160
Vesely1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 24 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeDarin1wins
AwayVesely6wins
2 of 7 to a deciderVesely leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDarin33.3%1 of 3
AwayVesely100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin3Vesely4n = 7Vesely took 4 of 7
S2Darin0Vesely7n = 7Vesely took 7 of 7
S3Darin4Vesely3n = 7Darin took 4 of 7
S4Darin0Vesely5n = 5Vesely took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricDarinVeselyD − VBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match37.441.0−3.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinVeselyBasisWin rate · lifetime758 / 1554 vs 69 / 12948.8%53.5%758 / 1554 vs 69 / 129Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VeselyDarin 2.75/Vesely 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Vesely · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vesely won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 28 · 08:30K. Darin407913111M. Vesely46111111133
LJun 16 · 07:30K. Darin26101060M. Vesely351212113
LJun 8 · 10:30K. Darin4611811792M. Vesely47511911113
LJun 8 · 08:59K. Darin2912980M. Vesely361411113
LJun 8 · 07:00K. Darin355911101M. Vesely4311119123
LOct 25 · 11:00K. Darin381111971M. Vesely3941311113
WSep 6 · 08:30K. Darin48126118113M. Vesely41101151142
K. Darin10
WSep 15 · 10:00J. Bresky1.40911481K. Darin2.7511411113WSep 14 · 13:00K. Darin1.83111110113V. Pecka1.83441281WSep 14 · 12:30V. Pecka1.837780K. Darin1.831111113LSep 14 · 11:30K. Darin1.61281281J. Steffan2.20111110113LSep 14 · 10:30A. Svoboda2.63117311113K. Darin1.4491111792WSep 14 · 09:30J. Jnr1.90971161K. Darin1.8011115113WSep 14 · 08:00K. Darin1.531111113A. Svoboda2.387380LSep 14 · 07:30J. Jnr2.101111113K. Darin1.679960WSep 14 · 06:00K. Darin1.44911911133M. Stefek2.63117112112LSep 13 · 13:05F. Jungman1.55111199113K. Darin2.3077111152
M. Vesely10
LSep 15 · 10:30M. Vesely1.8312131241P. Zmuda1.83141510113LSep 15 · 08:59M. Vesely1.448990J. Prokupek2.631111113LSep 15 · 08:00T. Varnuska2.10761111163M. Vesely1.67111169142LSep 15 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.91115119113M. Vesely1.8091131172WSep 15 · 06:30M. Vesely1.731111113J. Prokupek2.009580LSep 14 · 13:00V. Cermak1.831111113M. Vesely1.835460LSep 14 · 12:30F. Just1.61117611113M. Vesely2.2081111942WSep 14 · 11:30M. Vesely2.10711148113D. Tuma1.67116121182LSep 14 · 10:30V. Cermak1.831111113M. Vesely1.839950WSep 14 · 09:00P. Zmuda1.73911681M. Vesely2.0011611113
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