TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129637
Played Sep 15Finished
Michal Vesely
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
121413151210411––
Petr Zmuda
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Vesely to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Vesely above · Petr Zmuda below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 91 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Michal Vesely at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vesely 2–3 Petr Zmuda Michal Vesely has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Zmuda beat Vesely 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:02What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Zmuda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesely 1497 vs Zmuda 1564
Zmuda
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesely 20% vs Zmuda 80%
Zmuda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesely 30% vs Zmuda 50%
Zmuda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesely -3 · Zmuda +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zmuda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmuda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesely 1.83 / Zmuda 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zmuda)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13129637
Vesely1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Zmuda1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVesely2wins
AwayZmuda3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderZmuda leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVesely50%2 of 4
AwayZmudan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesely4Zmuda1n = 5Vesely took 4 of 5
S2Vesely2Zmuda3n = 5Zmuda took 3 of 5
S3Vesely2Zmuda3n = 5Zmuda took 3 of 5
S4Vesely2Zmuda3n = 5Zmuda took 3 of 5
S5Vesely1Zmuda2n = 3Zmuda took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricVeselyZmudaV − ZBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match41.442.6−1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeselyZmudaBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 128 vs 131 / 24653.9%53.3%69 / 128 vs 131 / 246Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaVesely 1.83/Zmuda 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 15 · 07:00M. Vesely4191131172P. Zmuda47115119113
WSep 14 · 09:00M. Vesely3911611113P. Zmuda34911681
LSep 14 · 07:00M. Vesely4411114992P. Zmuda47591111113
WAug 12 · 14:30M. Vesely49117117133P. Zmuda44311811112
LJul 13 · 06:30M. Vesely341110671P. Zmuda4171211113
M. Vesely10
WSep 15 · 11:00K. Darin2.759790M. Vesely1.401111113LSep 15 · 08:59M. Vesely1.448990J. Prokupek2.631111113LSep 15 · 08:00T. Varnuska2.10761111163M. Vesely1.67111169142LSep 15 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.91115119113M. Vesely1.8091131172WSep 15 · 06:30M. Vesely1.731111113J. Prokupek2.009580LSep 14 · 13:00V. Cermak1.831111113M. Vesely1.835460LSep 14 · 12:30F. Just1.61117611113M. Vesely2.2081111942WSep 14 · 11:30M. Vesely2.10711148113D. Tuma1.67116121182LSep 14 · 10:30V. Cermak1.831111113M. Vesely1.839950WSep 14 · 09:00P. Zmuda1.73911681M. Vesely2.0011611113
P. Zmuda10
WSep 15 · 11:30P. Zmuda1.5311127123J. Bresky2.3881011101WSep 15 · 09:30P. Zmuda1.43101211113T. Varnuska2.601210741WSep 15 · 08:30P. Zmuda1.5781111113J. Prokupek2.25117891WSep 15 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.91115119113M. Vesely1.8091131172WSep 15 · 06:00T. Varnuska2.3871050P. Zmuda1.531112113LSep 14 · 09:00P. Zmuda1.73911681M. Vesely2.0011611113LSep 14 · 08:30P. Zmuda2.00411441V. Cermak1.7311811113WSep 14 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.67591111113M. Vesely2.1011114992LSep 14 · 06:00J. Stolfa1.83711116123P. Zmuda1.83119911102LAug 23 · 20:59M. Chlebecek1.9111119113P. Zmuda1.80941151
Upcoming Matches
M. Vesely
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P. Zmuda
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