TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140620
Played Sep 17Finished
Petr Zmuda
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91113111181012911
Daniel Tuma
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Daniel Tuma below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 105 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Petr Zmuda at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 11–10 Daniel Tuma Daniel Tuma has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Tuma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1606 vs Tuma 1590
Zmuda
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 100% vs Tuma 60%
Zmuda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 90% vs Tuma 60%
Zmuda
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda +5 · Tuma -2
Zmuda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tuma) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmuda form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 1.83 / Tuma 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tuma)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140620
Zmuda1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Tuma1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZmuda5wins
AwayTuma5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmuda100%3 of 3
AwayTuma71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda3Tuma7n = 10Tuma took 7 of 10
S2Zmuda8Tuma2n = 10Zmuda took 8 of 10
S3Zmuda5Tuma5n = 10split evenly
S4Zmuda3Tuma4n = 7Tuma took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZmudaTumaZ − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.838.0−0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 252 vs 769 / 147254%52.2%136 / 252 vs 769 / 1472Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaZmuda 1.83/Tuma 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 07:30P. Zmuda52913111092D. Tuma531111812113
WAug 22 · 09:00P. Zmuda351113113D. Tuma2551190
LAug 22 · 07:30P. Zmuda326511101D. Tuma4011116123
WAug 10 · 22:00P. Zmuda361113123D. Tuma27611100
LAug 1 · 18:00P. Zmuda2385100D. Tuma341111123
LAug 1 · 02:58P. Zmuda354119111D. Tuma4311811133
LAug 1 · 24:00P. Zmuda32811581D. Tuma3811511113
WJul 28 · 08:58P. Zmuda50411915113D. Tuma51119111372
WJul 28 · 07:30P. Zmuda3611113113D. Tuma32791151
WJul 27 · 01:30P. Zmuda47121113113D. Tuma371451171
P. Zmuda10
WSep 17 · 08:30M. Volf1.671261071P. Zmuda2.10101112113WSep 17 · 06:30J. Stolfa1.8311711652P. Zmuda1.83611811113WSep 15 · 13:30P. Zmuda1.7311412123M. Vesely2.0061110101WSep 15 · 12:30K. Darin3.0010760P. Zmuda1.361211113WSep 15 · 11:30P. Zmuda1.5311127123J. Bresky2.3881011101WSep 15 · 10:30M. Vesely1.8312131241P. Zmuda1.83141510113WSep 15 · 09:30P. Zmuda1.43101211113T. Varnuska2.601210741WSep 15 · 08:30P. Zmuda1.5781111113J. Prokupek2.25117891WSep 15 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.91115119113M. Vesely1.8091131172WSep 15 · 06:00T. Varnuska2.3871050P. Zmuda1.531112113
D. Tuma10
LSep 17 · 08:00D. Tuma1.83412611J. Stolfa1.83111011113LSep 17 · 06:00D. Tuma1.83761551M. Volf1.83111113113LSep 15 · 03:30P. Pycha1.601111123D. Tuma2.2055100WSep 15 · 01:30D. Tuma1.671111113R. Krejci2.106860WSep 15 · 24:30M. Volf2.00811119102D. Tuma1.73117611123WSep 14 · 23:30P. Pycha1.5761171192D. Tuma2.25119117113LSep 14 · 22:30D. Tuma2.2010116131A. Hlawatschke1.6112411153WSep 14 · 13:30D. Tuma1.431111113F. Just2.607450WSep 14 · 12:00D. Tuma2.10411119123V. Cermak1.67118911102LSep 14 · 11:30M. Vesely2.10711148113D. Tuma1.67116121182
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