TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129422
Played Sep 14Finished
Daniel Tuma
Home
1.43
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117114115––––
Frantisek Just
Away
2.60
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:11 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tuma to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Tuma above · Frantisek Just below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 49 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Daniel Tuma at 64.9%
49 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tuma 24–13 Frantisek Just Frantisek Just has won 13 of their 37 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Tuma beat Just 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:11What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.43 (65%)
Tuma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-13 in 37
Tuma
Correct
gap of 11 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1596 vs Just 1625
Just
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 60% vs Just 80%
Just
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 30% vs Just 70%
Just
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma +1 · Just +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Tuma)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Just form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 1.43 / Just 2.60
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Tuma)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13129422
Tuma1.43
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 127 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it93% 63 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it78% 95 of 122
Just2.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 19 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back8% 3 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuma8wins
AwayJust2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTuma leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuma83.3%5 of 6
AwayJust25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma6Just4n = 10Tuma took 6 of 10
S2Tuma9Just1n = 10Tuma took 9 of 10
S3Tuma5Just5n = 10split evenly
S4Tuma5Just2n = 7Tuma took 5 of 7
S5Tuma2Just1n = 3Tuma took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTumaJustT − JBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.033.4+6.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaJustBasisWin rate · lifetime764 / 1463 vs 177 / 35352.2%50.1%764 / 1463 vs 177 / 353Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaTuma 1.43/Just 2.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 10:00D. Tuma48121114113F. Just411481271
WAug 25 · 02:30D. Tuma331111113F. Just205780
WAug 21 · 14:00D. Tuma43111110113F. Just34871271
LAug 19 · 13:00D. Tuma4311118582F. Just47591111113
WAug 19 · 11:30D. Tuma541291111113F. Just4514117672
WAug 13 · 21:30D. Tuma331111113F. Just225890
WAug 13 · 19:30D. Tuma3711114113F. Just28361181
WJul 27 · 02:30D. Tuma331111113F. Just198380
WJul 23 · 13:02D. Tuma48911611113F. Just3511411452
LJul 23 · 11:00D. Tuma28512561F. Just43111011113
D. Tuma10
WSep 14 · 12:00D. Tuma2.10411119123V. Cermak1.67118911102LSep 14 · 11:30M. Vesely2.10711148113D. Tuma1.67116121182WSep 14 · 10:00D. Tuma1.44121114113F. Just2.631481271WSep 13 · 02:30M. Sobisek1.808111181D. Tuma1.9111613113LSep 13 · 01:00R. Krejci2.101111113D. Tuma1.674640LSep 12 · 23:30D. Tuma2.20514131272M. Vizek1.6111121114113LSep 12 · 22:00D. Tuma2.105770P. Pycha1.671111113LSep 9 · 21:00D. Tuma2.2551530M. Pikous1.571117113LSep 9 · 20:30D. Tuma1.83118581J. Stolfa1.8391111113LSep 9 · 19:00D. Tuma2.3897111182M. Bittner1.53111169113
F. Just10
WSep 14 · 12:30F. Just1.61117611113M. Vesely2.2081111942WSep 14 · 11:00F. Just2.25811117123V. Cermak1.57119911102LSep 14 · 10:00D. Tuma1.44121114113F. Just2.631481271WSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930WSep 4 · 16:30J. Prokupek3.104770F. Just1.301111113WSep 4 · 15:30F. Just1.381111113R. Pavelka2.802760WSep 4 · 14:30D. Parhomenko2.007780F. Just1.701111113LAug 25 · 02:30F. Just2.385780D. Tuma1.531111113WAug 25 · 01:30M. Vesely2.20115111142F. Just1.61911137113LAug 25 · 24:00F. Just1.833730R. Krejci1.831111113
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