TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13128674
Played Sep 15Finished
Daniel Tuma
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118116––––
Richard Krejci
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:02 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeRichard Krejci to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Tuma above · Richard Krejci below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 53 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Richard Krejci at 55.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tuma 16–11 Richard Krejci Richard Krejci has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:02What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Tuma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-11 in 27
Tuma
Correct
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1629 vs Krejci 1593
Tuma
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 80% vs Krejci 60%
Tuma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 60% vs Krejci 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma +2 · Krejci -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Tuma) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krejci form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 1.67 / Krejci 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Tuma)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13128674
Tuma1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 127 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it93% 63 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it78% 95 of 122
Krejci2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 26 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuma6wins
AwayKrejci4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTuma leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuma80%4 of 5
AwayKrejci60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma5Krejci5n = 10split evenly
S2Tuma5Krejci5n = 10split evenly
S3Tuma6Krejci4n = 10Tuma took 6 of 10
S4Tuma4Krejci2n = 6Tuma took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTumaKrejciT − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.834.4+0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaKrejciBasisWin rate · lifetime767 / 1467 vs 189 / 35652.3%53.1%767 / 1467 vs 189 / 356Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaTuma 1.67/Krejci 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 01:00D. Tuma144640R. Krejci331111113
WSep 1 · 03:28D. Tuma4111811113R. Krejci37911891
LSep 1 · 24:00D. Tuma186570R. Krejci331111113
LAug 25 · 01:00D. Tuma4511714492R. Krejci549111211113
WJul 29 · 22:00D. Tuma331111113R. Krejci204790
WJul 26 · 23:00D. Tuma44111111113R. Krejci34139841
WJul 25 · 02:30D. Tuma331111113R. Krejci207580
LJul 3 · 01:00D. Tuma30671161R. Krejci3711114113
WJan 20 · 01:00D. Tuma47611811113R. Krejci4111411782
WNov 26 · 02:30D. Tuma4316115113R. Krejci351471131
D. Tuma10
WSep 15 · 24:30M. Volf2.00811119102D. Tuma1.73117611123WSep 14 · 23:30P. Pycha1.5761171192D. Tuma2.25119117113LSep 14 · 22:30D. Tuma2.2010116131A. Hlawatschke1.6112411153WSep 14 · 13:30D. Tuma1.431111113F. Just2.607450WSep 14 · 12:00D. Tuma2.10411119123V. Cermak1.67118911102LSep 14 · 11:30M. Vesely2.10711148113D. Tuma1.67116121182WSep 14 · 10:00D. Tuma1.44121114113F. Just2.631481271WSep 13 · 02:30M. Sobisek1.808111181D. Tuma1.9111613113LSep 13 · 01:00R. Krejci2.101111113D. Tuma1.674640LSep 12 · 23:30D. Tuma2.20514131272M. Vizek1.6111121114113
R. Krejci10
LSep 15 · 02:30R. Krejci2.38108111262P. Pycha1.531211910113LSep 15 · 24:00R. Krejci3.00113115112A. Hlawatschke1.36711711133LSep 14 · 23:00M. Volf1.911111113R. Krejci1.808950WSep 13 · 03:28P. Pycha1.807101181R. Krejci1.9111123113WSep 13 · 02:00R. Krejci2.101111113P. Pycha1.678130WSep 13 · 01:00R. Krejci2.101111113D. Tuma1.674640LSep 13 · 24:00M. Sobisek1.5311119113R. Krejci2.38731181LSep 12 · 22:30M. Vizek1.501111119113R. Krejci2.5013721182WSep 12 · 02:58R. Krejci2.00119611113V. Cermak1.7371111592WSep 12 · 01:30R. Krejci3.251111113M. Sopko1.338790
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