TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Petr Zmuda
Home
1.87
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1148111820911––
Richard Krejci
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:15 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Richard Krejci below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 18-20
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 92 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Petr Zmuda at 55.2%
92 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 3–2 Richard Krejci Richard Krejci has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Krejci beat Zmuda 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:15What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Krejci
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1605 vs Krejci 1592
Zmuda
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 60% vs Krejci 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 70% vs Krejci 50%
Zmuda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda -1 · Krejci +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zmuda) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 1.87 / Krejci 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zmuda)+4.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13167426
Zmuda1.87
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 17 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back18% 5 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Krejci1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 52 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it88% 37 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeZmuda3wins
AwayKrejci2wins
4 of 5 to a deciderZmuda leads 3–2, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmudan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKrejci33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda2Krejci3n = 5Krejci took 3 of 5
S2Zmuda3Krejci2n = 5Zmuda took 3 of 5
S3Zmuda4Krejci1n = 5Zmuda took 4 of 5
S4Zmuda2Krejci2n = 4split evenly
S5Zmuda2Krejci2n = 4split evenly
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricZmudaKrejciZ − KBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match45.242.0+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaKrejciBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 246 vs 192 / 36252.4%53%129 / 246 vs 192 / 362Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaZmuda 1.87/Krejci 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krejci won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 21 · 02:30P. Zmuda47614111242R. Krejci531116510113
WJul 27 · 24:30P. Zmuda331111113R. Krejci198650
WJul 24 · 23:00P. Zmuda48491111133R. Krejci45111166112
WJul 21 · 03:30P. Zmuda49711119113R. Krejci4011821182
LJul 21 · 24:00P. Zmuda49111387102R. Krejci538111111123
P. Zmuda10
LSep 21 · 02:30R. Krejci2.251116510113P. Zmuda1.57614111242WSep 21 · 01:00V. Postelt2.00111171452P. Zmuda1.73871116113WSep 20 · 23:30P. Zmuda1.831411113D. Kouble1.8312940WSep 20 · 22:00P. Zmuda1.501111113J. Prokupek2.509870LSep 17 · 09:28P. Zmuda2.001181191M. Volf1.7313114113WSep 17 · 08:30M. Volf1.671261071P. Zmuda2.10101112113LSep 17 · 07:30P. Zmuda1.83913111092D. Tuma1.831111812113WSep 17 · 06:30J. Stolfa1.8311711652P. Zmuda1.83611811113WSep 15 · 13:30P. Zmuda1.7311412123M. Vesely2.0061110101WSep 15 · 12:30K. Darin3.0010760P. Zmuda1.361211113
R. Krejci10
WSep 21 · 02:30R. Krejci2.251116510113P. Zmuda1.57614111242LSep 21 · 01:30D. Kouble2.251115106113R. Krejci1.57513121192WSep 21 · 24:00R. Krejci1.441111113V. Postelt2.635360WSep 20 · 23:00J. Prokupek2.381115591R. Krejci1.5371711113LSep 18 · 02:59R. Krejci1.83411931D. Tuma1.8311811113WSep 18 · 02:00R. Krejci1.611111113F. Just2.205690LSep 18 · 01:00R. Krejci3.0091111532A. Hlawatschke1.36117811113WSep 18 · 24:00D. Tuma1.61136100R. Krejci2.201511123LSep 17 · 22:30V. Cermak1.671111113R. Krejci2.105240LSep 15 · 02:30R. Krejci2.38108111262P. Pycha1.531211910113
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