TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Richard Krejci
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11616145111012114
Petr Zmuda
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:17 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Krejci above · Petr Zmuda below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 100 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Petr Zmuda at 57.7%
100 points played in total.
H2H Richard Krejci 2–3 Petr Zmuda Richard Krejci has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:17What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Zmuda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krejci 1592 vs Zmuda 1605
Zmuda
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krejci 60% vs Zmuda 80%
Zmuda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krejci 40% vs Zmuda 80%
Zmuda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krejci -1 · Zmuda +3
Zmuda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Zmuda) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmuda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrejci 2.25 / Zmuda 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Zmuda)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13159847
Krejci2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 27 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Zmuda1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 53 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it83% 35 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKrejci2wins
AwayZmuda3wins
4 of 5 to a deciderZmuda leads 3–2, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrejci33.3%1 of 3
AwayZmudan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krejci3Zmuda2n = 5Krejci took 3 of 5
S2Krejci2Zmuda3n = 5Zmuda took 3 of 5
S3Krejci1Zmuda4n = 5Zmuda took 4 of 5
S4Krejci2Zmuda2n = 4split evenly
S5Krejci2Zmuda2n = 4split evenly
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKrejciZmudaK − ZBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match42.045.2−3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrejciZmudaBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 362 vs 129 / 24653%52.4%192 / 362 vs 129 / 246Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaKrejci 2.25/Zmuda 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krejci won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 21 · 02:30R. Krejci531116510113P. Zmuda47614111242
LJul 27 · 24:30R. Krejci198650P. Zmuda331111113
LJul 24 · 23:00R. Krejci45111166112P. Zmuda48491111133
LJul 21 · 03:30R. Krejci4011821182P. Zmuda49711119113
WJul 21 · 24:00R. Krejci538111111123P. Zmuda49111387102
R. Krejci10
WSep 21 · 03:30P. Zmuda1.871181891R. Krejci1.8341120113LSep 21 · 01:30D. Kouble2.251115106113R. Krejci1.57513121192WSep 21 · 24:00R. Krejci1.441111113V. Postelt2.635360WSep 20 · 23:00J. Prokupek2.381115591R. Krejci1.5371711113LSep 18 · 02:59R. Krejci1.83411931D. Tuma1.8311811113WSep 18 · 02:00R. Krejci1.611111113F. Just2.205690LSep 18 · 01:00R. Krejci3.0091111532A. Hlawatschke1.36117811113WSep 18 · 24:00D. Tuma1.61136100R. Krejci2.201511123LSep 17 · 22:30V. Cermak1.671111113R. Krejci2.105240LSep 15 · 02:30R. Krejci2.38108111262P. Pycha1.531211910113
P. Zmuda10
LSep 21 · 03:30P. Zmuda1.871181891R. Krejci1.8341120113WSep 21 · 01:00V. Postelt2.00111171452P. Zmuda1.73871116113WSep 20 · 23:30P. Zmuda1.831411113D. Kouble1.8312940WSep 20 · 22:00P. Zmuda1.501111113J. Prokupek2.509870LSep 17 · 09:28P. Zmuda2.001181191M. Volf1.7313114113WSep 17 · 08:30M. Volf1.671261071P. Zmuda2.10101112113LSep 17 · 07:30P. Zmuda1.83913111092D. Tuma1.831111812113WSep 17 · 06:30J. Stolfa1.8311711652P. Zmuda1.83611811113WSep 15 · 13:30P. Zmuda1.7311412123M. Vesely2.0061110101WSep 15 · 12:30K. Darin3.0010760P. Zmuda1.361211113
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