TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vedmoch vs Petr Zmuda 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Vedmoch
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11810121113911––
Petr Zmuda
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:05 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Petr Zmuda below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 85 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Petr Zmuda at 57.4%
85 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 3–3 Petr Zmuda Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:05What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vedmoch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1579 vs Zmuda 1577
Vedmoch
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 20% vs Zmuda 60%
Zmuda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 50% vs Zmuda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch -3 · Zmuda -2
Vedmoch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vedmoch) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 1.73 / Zmuda 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vedmoch)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13166817
Vedmoch1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 11) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 188 of 296
Up 2–0, closes it97% 94 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it80% 144 of 180
Zmuda2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 17 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back18% 5 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeVedmoch3wins
AwayZmuda3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmoch75%3 of 4
AwayZmudan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch4Zmuda2n = 6Vedmoch took 4 of 6
S2Vedmoch3Zmuda3n = 6split evenly
S3Vedmoch4Zmuda2n = 6Vedmoch took 4 of 6
S4Vedmoch1Zmuda3n = 4Zmuda took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricVedmochZmudaV − ZBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match36.735.8+0.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochZmudaBasisWin rate · lifetime720 / 1338 vs 129 / 24753.8%52.2%720 / 1338 vs 129 / 247Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochVedmoch 1.73/Zmuda 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJul 26 · 22:30M. Vedmoch341111123P. Zmuda2367100
LJul 21 · 01:00M. Vedmoch29881121P. Zmuda4111118113
WJul 4 · 01:30M. Vedmoch51119911113P. Zmuda4361111692
WJul 1 · 11:00M. Vedmoch331111113P. Zmuda247890
LJul 1 · 06:30M. Vedmoch44611111332P. Zmuda46117215113
LJun 28 · 19:30M. Vedmoch29119271P. Zmuda3851111113
M. Vedmoch10
LSep 11 · 02:59M. Sobisek1.361110511133M. Vedmoch3.00512117112LSep 11 · 02:30M. Sobisek1.401311113M. Vedmoch2.7511450LSep 11 · 01:00M. Vizek1.3671112113M. Vedmoch3.001191071WSep 10 · 23:30M. Vedmoch2.2581212113M. Volf1.5711101081LSep 10 · 22:00M. Vedmoch2.7551141352V. Cermak1.401161111113WSep 10 · 17:30M. Kolar2.758590M. Vedmoch1.401111113WSep 10 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.40511712113M. Kolar2.75117111042LSep 10 · 15:30T. Dousa2.0081112113M. Vedmoch1.731171061WSep 10 · 14:00M. Vedmoch1.61121111113M. Sedlak2.20146751WSep 10 · 02:58A. Hlawatschke1.7376110M. Vedmoch2.001111133
P. Zmuda10
LSep 21 · 03:30P. Zmuda1.871181891R. Krejci1.8341120113LSep 21 · 02:30R. Krejci2.251116510113P. Zmuda1.57614111242WSep 21 · 01:00V. Postelt2.00111171452P. Zmuda1.73871116113WSep 20 · 23:30P. Zmuda1.831411113D. Kouble1.8312940WSep 20 · 22:00P. Zmuda1.501111113J. Prokupek2.509870LSep 17 · 09:28P. Zmuda2.001181191M. Volf1.7313114113WSep 17 · 08:30M. Volf1.671261071P. Zmuda2.10101112113LSep 17 · 07:30P. Zmuda1.83913111092D. Tuma1.831111812113WSep 17 · 06:30J. Stolfa1.8311711652P. Zmuda1.83611811113WSep 15 · 13:30P. Zmuda1.7311412123M. Vesely2.0061110101
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