TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Zmuda vs Ales Hlawatschke 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Petr Zmuda
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1111161012116––
Ales Hlawatschke
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Hlawatschke to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Ales Hlawatschke below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 68 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Ales Hlawatschke at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 2–0 Ales Hlawatschke Ales Hlawatschke has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:13What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zmuda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1601 vs Hlawatschke 1600
Zmuda
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 60% vs Hlawatschke 80%
Hlawatschke
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 60% vs Hlawatschke 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda +1 · Hlawatschke +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Zmuda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hlawatschke form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 1.61 / Hlawatschke 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Zmuda)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13165824
Zmuda1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 55 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it84% 36 of 43
Hlawatschke2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 12 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back20% 3 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeZmuda2wins
AwayHlawatschke0wins
Zmuda leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricZmudaHlawatschkeZ − HBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match38.022.5+15.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaHlawatschkeBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 241 vs 115 / 22951.5%50.2%124 / 241 vs 115 / 229Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaZmuda 1.61/Hlawatschke 2.20
Hit
What we said
55.5%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 21 · 23:00P. Zmuda43111110113A. Hlawatschke25161261
WAug 11 · 02:00P. Zmuda331111113A. Hlawatschke206770
P. Zmuda10
WSep 21 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.7311101191P. Zmuda2.0081213113LSep 21 · 03:30P. Zmuda1.871181891R. Krejci1.8341120113LSep 21 · 02:30R. Krejci2.251116510113P. Zmuda1.57614111242WSep 21 · 01:00V. Postelt2.00111171452P. Zmuda1.73871116113WSep 20 · 23:30P. Zmuda1.831411113D. Kouble1.8312940WSep 20 · 22:00P. Zmuda1.501111113J. Prokupek2.509870LSep 17 · 09:28P. Zmuda2.001181191M. Volf1.7313114113WSep 17 · 08:30M. Volf1.671261071P. Zmuda2.10101112113LSep 17 · 07:30P. Zmuda1.83913111092D. Tuma1.831111812113WSep 17 · 06:30J. Stolfa1.8311711652P. Zmuda1.83611811113
A. Hlawatschke10
WSep 18 · 03:30A. Hlawatschke1.27961116143V. Cermak3.251111814122LSep 18 · 02:30D. Tuma2.2011111010173A. Hlawatschke1.61691212152WSep 18 · 01:00R. Krejci3.0091111532A. Hlawatschke1.36117811113WSep 17 · 23:30A. Hlawatschke1.441111113V. Cermak2.631690WSep 17 · 22:00A. Hlawatschke2.2011611113F. Just1.61311591WSep 15 · 03:05M. Volf1.61714891A. Hlawatschke2.20111211113LSep 15 · 02:00A. Hlawatschke2.2012137101M. Volf1.61141111123LSep 15 · 01:00A. Hlawatschke1.83121070P. Pycha1.831412113WSep 15 · 24:00R. Krejci3.00113115112A. Hlawatschke1.36711711133WSep 14 · 22:30D. Tuma2.2010116131A. Hlawatschke1.6112411153
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