TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140675
Played Sep 17Finished
Ales Hlawatschke
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
111116119––––
Vladimir Cermak
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:02 and never touched — 77.4% is still 77.4%
Graded at full timeAles Hlawatschke to win
77.4%
77.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Hlawatschke above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 49 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ales Hlawatschke at 77.4%
49 points played in total.
H2H Ales Hlawatschke 16–2 Vladimir Cermak Vladimir Cermak has won 2 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:02What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hlawatschke
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-2 in 18
Hlawatschke
Correct
gap of 14 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hlawatschke 1604 vs Cermak 1559
Hlawatschke
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hlawatschke 60% vs Cermak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hlawatschke 60% vs Cermak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hlawatschke +2 · Cermak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Hlawatschke) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cermak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHlawatschke 1.44 / Cermak 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Hlawatschke)+4.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140675
Hlawatschke1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 15 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it54% 7 of 13
Cermak2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 80 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back25% 28 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHlawatschke8wins
AwayCermak2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHlawatschke leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHlawatschke87.5%7 of 8
AwayCermakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hlawatschke8Cermak2n = 10Hlawatschke took 8 of 10
S2Hlawatschke7Cermak3n = 10Hlawatschke took 7 of 10
S3Hlawatschke5Cermak5n = 10split evenly
S4Hlawatschke4Cermak3n = 7Hlawatschke took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHlawatschkeCermakH − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.332.1+7.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHlawatschkeCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 224 vs 551 / 108350%50.9%112 / 224 vs 551 / 1083Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HlawatschkeHlawatschke 1.44/Cermak 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Hlawatschke · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hlawatschke won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 22:30A. Hlawatschke321011561V. Cermak3812411113
WSep 8 · 22:30A. Hlawatschke541213810113V. Cermak501011111262
WMar 18 · 03:00A. Hlawatschke4011117113V. Cermak30841171
WFeb 5 · 24:30A. Hlawatschke331111113V. Cermak166280
WJan 7 · 02:00A. Hlawatschke4211911113V. Cermak27711361
WDec 10 · 10:30A. Hlawatschke331111113V. Cermak143740
WDec 10 · 09:00A. Hlawatschke341211113V. Cermak2310580
WOct 29 · 24:00A. Hlawatschke46121011133V. Cermak4110128111
LOct 17 · 01:30A. Hlawatschke31119831V. Cermak4291111113
WOct 15 · 01:30A. Hlawatschke481011511113V. Cermak4012811722
A. Hlawatschke10
WSep 17 · 22:00A. Hlawatschke2.2011611113F. Just1.61311591WSep 15 · 03:05M. Volf1.61714891A. Hlawatschke2.20111211113LSep 15 · 02:00A. Hlawatschke2.2012137101M. Volf1.61141111123LSep 15 · 01:00A. Hlawatschke1.83121070P. Pycha1.831412113WSep 15 · 24:00R. Krejci3.00113115112A. Hlawatschke1.36711711133WSep 14 · 22:30D. Tuma2.2010116131A. Hlawatschke1.6112411153LSep 10 · 02:58A. Hlawatschke1.7376110M. Vedmoch2.001111133WSep 10 · 02:00A. Hlawatschke1.8311611113D. Kouble1.83811481WSep 10 · 01:00A. Hlawatschke1.734111310113M. Vedmoch2.00119111292LSep 10 · 24:00J. Hradecky1.67116811113A. Hlawatschke2.1091111962
V. Cermak10
WSep 18 · 24:30F. Just2.63116551V. Cermak1.4471111113WSep 17 · 22:30V. Cermak1.671111113R. Krejci2.105240LSep 15 · 13:30J. Hradecky1.3512117133V. Cermak2.9510911111WSep 15 · 12:30J. Svoboda1.73611101182V. Cermak2.00119124113LSep 15 · 11:30V. Cermak2.75118831J. Hradecky1.4061111113WSep 15 · 10:30J. Stolfa2.3889111112V. Cermak1.53111156113LSep 15 · 09:00V. Cermak1.6171271162J. Stolfa2.201110119113LSep 15 · 08:30V. Cermak1.538880F. Just2.381111113LSep 15 · 07:00V. Cermak2.00121113572J. Svoboda1.731461111113WSep 15 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.205530V. Cermak1.611111113
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