TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13141577
Played Sep 18Finished
Frantisek Just
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117611511511––
Vladimir Cermak
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Just above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 67 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Vladimir Cermak at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Just 14–20 Vladimir Cermak Frantisek Just has won 14 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:22What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-20 in 34
Cermak
Correct
gap of 6 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Just 1617 vs Cermak 1546
Just
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Just 60% vs Cermak 40%
Just
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Just 50% vs Cermak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Just -2 · Cermak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Cermak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cermak form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJust 2.63 / Cermak 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Cermak)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13141577
Just2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 22 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back10% 4 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Cermak1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 146 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it90% 72 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it77% 117 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJust4wins
AwayCermak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCermak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJust75%3 of 4
AwayCermak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Just4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S2Just7Cermak3n = 10Just took 7 of 10
S3Just4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S4Just2Cermak5n = 7Cermak took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJustCermakJ − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.937.3−2.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJustCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 352 vs 551 / 108449.7%50.8%175 / 352 vs 551 / 1084Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CermakJust 2.63/Cermak 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 08:30F. Just331111113V. Cermak248880
WSep 14 · 11:00F. Just49811117123V. Cermak50119911102
LAug 8 · 17:30F. Just31411791V. Cermak4111811113
WAug 8 · 15:30F. Just3911116113V. Cermak31871151
LJul 23 · 12:30F. Just4561651172V. Cermak531114116113
LJun 21 · 13:30F. Just324126101V. Cermak44111011123
WJun 21 · 10:30F. Just341112113V. Cermak2281040
LMay 31 · 13:30F. Just31781151V. Cermak4011117113
LMay 31 · 10:30F. Just173770V. Cermak331111113
LMay 25 · 09:30F. Just38119991V. Cermak3521111113
F. Just10
LSep 17 · 23:00F. Just2.756980D. Tuma1.401111113LSep 17 · 22:00A. Hlawatschke2.2011611113F. Just1.61311591WSep 15 · 09:30F. Just2.35117411113J. Svoboda1.5261111772WSep 15 · 08:30V. Cermak1.538880F. Just2.381111113WSep 15 · 07:30F. Just1.5710111011163J. Stolfa2.25126129142LSep 15 · 06:30J. Svoboda1.611111116113F. Just2.2086131182LSep 14 · 13:30D. Tuma1.431111113F. Just2.607450WSep 14 · 12:30F. Just1.61117611113M. Vesely2.2081111942WSep 14 · 11:00F. Just2.25811117123V. Cermak1.57119911102LSep 14 · 10:00D. Tuma1.44121114113F. Just2.631481271
V. Cermak10
LSep 17 · 23:30A. Hlawatschke1.441111113V. Cermak2.631690WSep 17 · 22:30V. Cermak1.671111113R. Krejci2.105240LSep 15 · 13:30J. Hradecky1.3512117133V. Cermak2.9510911111WSep 15 · 12:30J. Svoboda1.73611101182V. Cermak2.00119124113LSep 15 · 11:30V. Cermak2.75118831J. Hradecky1.4061111113WSep 15 · 10:30J. Stolfa2.3889111112V. Cermak1.53111156113LSep 15 · 09:00V. Cermak1.6171271162J. Stolfa2.201110119113LSep 15 · 08:30V. Cermak1.538880F. Just2.381111113LSep 15 · 07:00V. Cermak2.00121113572J. Svoboda1.731461111113LSep 14 · 11:00F. Just2.25811117123V. Cermak1.57119911102
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