TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135183
Played Sep 15Finished
Jakub Hradecky
Home
1.35
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101197111311––
Vladimir Cermak
Away
2.95
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Hradecky to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Hradecky above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 84 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Jakub Hradecky at 71.6%
84 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Hradecky 29–7 Vladimir Cermak Vladimir Cermak has won 7 of their 36 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Hradecky beat Cermak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:07What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.35 (69%)
Hradecky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-7 in 36
Hradecky
Correct
gap of 22 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hradecky 1733 vs Cermak 1556
Hradecky
Correct
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hradecky 100% vs Cermak 40%
Hradecky
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hradecky 90% vs Cermak 40%
Hradecky
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hradecky +5 · Cermak +1
Hradecky
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Hradecky) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hradecky form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHradecky 1.35 / Cermak 2.95
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Hradecky)+6.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135183
Hradecky1.35
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 88 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it100% 42 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it81% 59 of 73
Cermak2.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 80 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHradecky7wins
AwayCermak3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHradecky leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHradecky83.3%5 of 6
AwayCermak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hradecky6Cermak4n = 10Hradecky took 6 of 10
S2Hradecky5Cermak5n = 10split evenly
S3Hradecky7Cermak3n = 10Hradecky took 7 of 10
S4Hradecky5Cermak4n = 9Hradecky took 5 of 9
S5Hradecky3Cermak2n = 5Hradecky took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHradeckyCermakH − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.839.7+4.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHradeckyCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 484 vs 551 / 108554.1%50.8%262 / 484 vs 551 / 1085Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HradeckyHradecky 1.35/Cermak 2.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Hradecky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hradecky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 11:30J. Hradecky3961111113V. Cermak30118831
WSep 10 · 03:28J. Hradecky341112113V. Cermak2371060
WSep 10 · 01:30J. Hradecky521112117113V. Cermak4041451162
WAug 28 · 12:30J. Hradecky4111611133V. Cermak377118111
WAug 27 · 01:30J. Hradecky51111199113V. Cermak4377111172
WAug 26 · 18:30J. Hradecky44101111123V. Cermak361277101
WAug 20 · 07:00J. Hradecky48121168113V. Cermak42103111172
LAug 13 · 02:00J. Hradecky4485111192V. Cermak49111179113
LJun 30 · 24:30J. Hradecky377812101V. Cermak44111110123
LJun 28 · 13:30J. Hradecky4811971382V. Cermak539111111113
J. Hradecky10
WSep 15 · 12:00J. Hradecky1.6711175113J. Stolfa2.107151181WSep 15 · 11:30V. Cermak2.75118831J. Hradecky1.4061111113WSep 15 · 10:00J. Hradecky1.6111115113J. Svoboda2.20841171WSep 10 · 03:28J. Hradecky1.441112113V. Cermak2.6371060WSep 10 · 02:30J. Hradecky1.40121111113M. Vedmoch2.75145051WSep 10 · 01:30V. Cermak2.6341451162J. Hradecky1.441112117113WSep 10 · 24:00J. Hradecky1.67116811113A. Hlawatschke2.1091111962WSep 9 · 23:00D. Kouble2.63861241J. Hradecky1.44111110113LSep 9 · 17:29J. Hradecky1.80121111792J. Stolfa1.91147611113WSep 9 · 16:30J. Hradecky1.671211113M. Sedlak2.1010640
V. Cermak10
WSep 15 · 12:30J. Svoboda1.73611101182V. Cermak2.00119124113LSep 15 · 11:30V. Cermak2.75118831J. Hradecky1.4061111113WSep 15 · 10:30J. Stolfa2.3889111112V. Cermak1.53111156113LSep 15 · 09:00V. Cermak1.6171271162J. Stolfa2.201110119113LSep 15 · 08:30V. Cermak1.538880F. Just2.381111113LSep 15 · 07:00V. Cermak2.00121113572J. Svoboda1.731461111113WSep 15 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.205530V. Cermak1.611111113WSep 14 · 13:00V. Cermak1.831111113M. Vesely1.835460LSep 10 · 03:28J. Hradecky1.441112113V. Cermak2.6371060LSep 10 · 01:30V. Cermak2.6341451162J. Hradecky1.441112117113
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