TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129942
Played Sep 15Finished
Jan Svoboda
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111191012114811
Vladimir Cermak
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:21 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeJan Svoboda to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Svoboda above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jan Svoboda at 60.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jan Svoboda 1–0 Vladimir Cermak Vladimir Cermak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Svoboda beat Cermak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 15:21What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1626 vs Cermak 1543
Svoboda
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 20% vs Cermak 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 50% vs Cermak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -4 · Cermak -1
Svoboda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cermak form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.73 / Cermak 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Svoboda)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13129942
Svoboda1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite80% won 12 of 15
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Cermak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 80 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSvoboda1wins
AwayCermak0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSvoboda leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSvobodaCermakS − CBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match53.048.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime15 / 26 vs 550 / 108457.7%50.7%15 / 26 vs 550 / 1084Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.73/Cermak 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 15 · 07:00J. Svoboda531461111113V. Cermak48121113572
J. Svoboda10
WSep 15 · 12:59J. Stolfa1.8088130J. Svoboda1.911111153LSep 15 · 11:00J. Svoboda1.836117111J. Stolfa1.8311811133LSep 15 · 10:00J. Hradecky1.6111115113J. Svoboda2.20841171LSep 15 · 09:30F. Just2.35117411113J. Svoboda1.5261111772LSep 15 · 08:00J. Stolfa2.101111113J. Svoboda1.678680WSep 15 · 07:00V. Cermak2.00121113572J. Svoboda1.731461111113WSep 15 · 06:30J. Svoboda1.611111116113F. Just2.2086131182LSep 10 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.8011811762J. Stolfa1.91911911113WSep 10 · 08:00J. Stolfa1.831162101J. Svoboda1.8381111123WSep 10 · 07:00T. Vinter2.0344111172J. Svoboda1.62111148113
V. Cermak10
LSep 15 · 11:30V. Cermak2.75118831J. Hradecky1.4061111113WSep 15 · 10:30J. Stolfa2.3889111112V. Cermak1.53111156113LSep 15 · 09:00V. Cermak1.6171271162J. Stolfa2.201110119113LSep 15 · 08:30V. Cermak1.538880F. Just2.381111113LSep 15 · 07:00V. Cermak2.00121113572J. Svoboda1.731461111113WSep 15 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.205530V. Cermak1.611111113WSep 14 · 13:00V. Cermak1.831111113M. Vesely1.835460LSep 14 · 12:00D. Tuma2.10411119123V. Cermak1.67118911102LSep 14 · 11:00F. Just2.25811117123V. Cermak1.57119911102WSep 14 · 10:30V. Cermak1.831111113M. Vesely1.839950
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