TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vaclav Nadvornik vs Jan Kocab 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Vaclav Nadvornik
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119116511118––
Jan Kocab
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nadvornik to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Nadvornik above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Vaclav Nadvornik at 54.2%
72 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Nadvornik 5–4 Jan Kocab Jan Kocab has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:29What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kocab
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nadvornik 1720 vs Kocab 1707
Nadvornik
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nadvornik 100% vs Kocab 60%
Nadvornik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nadvornik 90% vs Kocab 70%
Nadvornik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nadvornik +8 · Kocab +1
Nadvornik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kocab) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nadvornik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNadvornik 2.00 / Kocab 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kocab)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13173279
Nadvornik2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 15 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Kocab1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 55 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it87% 45 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeNadvornik5wins
AwayKocab4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderNadvornik leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNadvornik80%4 of 5
AwayKocab75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nadvornik5Kocab4n = 9Nadvornik took 5 of 9
S2Nadvornik5Kocab4n = 9Nadvornik took 5 of 9
S3Nadvornik7Kocab2n = 9Nadvornik took 7 of 9
S4Nadvornik2Kocab3n = 5Kocab took 3 of 5
S5Nadvornik1Kocab2n = 3Kocab took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricNadvornikKocabN − KBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match37.634.9+2.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNadvornikKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 310 vs 127 / 26755.2%47.6%171 / 310 vs 127 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocabNadvornik 2.00/Kocab 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kocab · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LDec 6 · 19:10V. Nadvornik4211311982J. Kocab48811711113
LNov 30 · 15:20V. Nadvornik33411991J. Kocab3711411113
WFeb 13 · 10:25V. Nadvornik331111113J. Kocab166370
WFeb 11 · 19:10V. Nadvornik341111123J. Kocab2486100
LFeb 11 · 15:40V. Nadvornik4788111192J. Kocab47111177113
LFeb 5 · 13:25V. Nadvornik2711880J. Kocab351311113
WJan 30 · 09:25V. Nadvornik3611311113J. Kocab36911881
WJan 28 · 14:25V. Nadvornik341111123J. Kocab2495100
WJan 24 · 21:55V. Nadvornik52911138113J. Kocab47116111182
V. Nadvornik10
WSep 22 · 11:20V. Nadvornik1.57821111123P. Benes2.25111199102WSep 22 · 10:20V. Nadvornik1.73116711113M. Brozek2.0091111982WSep 10 · 14:25V. Nadvornik1.28116612113O. Fiklik3.15911111072WSep 10 · 13:25O. Fiklik2.505790V. Nadvornik1.501111113WSep 10 · 12:25V. Nadvornik1.672111110113A. Rek2.1011661262WSep 10 · 10:55J. Vonasek2.509133111V. Nadvornik1.50111111133WSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123LSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152WSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871
J. Kocab10
WSep 22 · 11:50M. Brozek2.3831171182J. Kocab1.53117115113LSep 22 · 10:50J. Kocab1.918980P. Benes1.801111113WSep 21 · 17:58J. Kocab1.73111011113D. Hyza2.00912561LSep 21 · 17:25J. Kocab2.008450P. Benes1.731111113WSep 21 · 15:55D. Hyza1.806980J. Kocab1.911111113WSep 21 · 15:25M. Brozek2.5051111912J. Kocab1.50119811113WSep 19 · 14:10J. Kocab1.451114113M. Brozek2.5551290WSep 19 · 13:25J. Kocab3.001011911113M. Cerny1.3612911382WSep 19 · 11:55M. Brozek2.2510590J. Kocab1.571211113LSep 19 · 11:25D. Bochnak1.301111113J. Kocab3.401360
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