TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156165
Played Sep 19Finished
David Bochnak
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
111113116––––
Jan Kocab
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Bochnak above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 7-4
Point 37 set 3, 7-4 — our read held David Bochnak at 59.6%
37 points drawn · the score is 6 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H David Bochnak 41–16 Jan Kocab Jan Kocab has won 16 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:48What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Bochnak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-16 in 57
Bochnak
Correct
gap of 25 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bochnak 1830 vs Kocab 1662
Bochnak
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bochnak 60% vs Kocab 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bochnak 70% vs Kocab 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bochnak +1 · Kocab +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Bochnak) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBochnak 1.30 / Kocab 3.40
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Bochnak)+6.3pp
TT Cup · #13156165
Bochnak1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 128 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 98 of 122
Kocab3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 27 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBochnak9wins
AwayKocab1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBochnak100%8 of 8
AwayKocabn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bochnak8Kocab2n = 10Bochnak took 8 of 10
S2Bochnak7Kocab3n = 10Bochnak took 7 of 10
S3Bochnak6Kocab4n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S4Bochnak4Kocab3n = 7Bochnak took 4 of 7
S5Bochnak3Kocab0n = 3Bochnak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBochnakKocabB − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.532.0+8.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBochnakKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 585 vs 128 / 26862.1%47.8%363 / 585 vs 128 / 268Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakBochnak 1.30/Kocab 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.6%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Bochnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 06:20D. Bochnak4011126113J. Kocab313101171
WAug 30 · 08:55D. Bochnak46131111113J. Kocab411113891
WAug 27 · 07:55D. Bochnak531111911113J. Kocab3673111322
WAug 23 · 10:20D. Bochnak47711711113J. Kocab4711911792
WAug 20 · 18:55D. Bochnak331111113J. Kocab228860
WAug 16 · 15:50D. Bochnak331111113J. Kocab187740
WJul 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak43111110113J. Kocab28831251
LJan 2 · 17:55D. Bochnak333101191J. Kocab4211128113
WJan 1 · 13:25D. Bochnak43114116113J. Kocab3561141132
WNov 30 · 18:50D. Bochnak341111123J. Kocab2055100
D. Bochnak10
WSep 19 · 12:55M. Brozek2.63115911102D. Bochnak1.44711113123LSep 19 · 12:25M. Cerny2.1011119123D. Bochnak1.678911101WSep 17 · 18:35D. Bochnak1.44111179113J. Zacharda2.6397111182LSep 17 · 17:25D. Bochnak1.67911981M. Cerny2.1011811113WSep 17 · 15:55O. Kadavy1.619370D. Bochnak2.201111113WSep 17 · 15:25J. Zacharda2.63671251D. Bochnak1.44111110113LSep 14 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.36511941J. Zacharda2.8011811113WSep 14 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.36111115113J. Zacharda3.00781781LSep 14 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.67111212592M. Cerny2.108101411113WSep 14 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.101211113O. Kadavy1.6710740
J. Kocab10
LSep 19 · 13:25J. Kocab3.001040M. Cerny1.361241WSep 19 · 11:55M. Brozek2.2510590J. Kocab1.571211113WSep 17 · 13:28P. Benes1.9181251152J. Kocab1.801110115113LSep 17 · 12:20P. Benes1.73691313113J. Kocab2.001111111192WSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113LSep 17 · 10:50J. Kocab1.83311681J. Zacharda1.8311311113WSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172WSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491WSep 15 · 06:55A. Rek1.83261141J. Kocab1.8311118113
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