TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156735
Played Sep 19Finished
Jan Kocab
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012119911113118
Martin Cerny
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:49 and never touched — 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Kocab above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 95 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Martin Cerny at 76.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kocab 7–24 Martin Cerny Jan Kocab has won 7 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:49What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-24 in 31
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 17 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocab 1671 vs Cerny 1785
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocab 60% vs Cerny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocab 70% vs Cerny 50%
Kocab
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocab +1 · Cerny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocab 3.00 / Cerny 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Cerny)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13156735
Kocab3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 27 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 27
Cerny1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 170 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it97% 85 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it85% 121 of 143
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocab2wins
AwayCerny8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocab33.3%1 of 3
AwayCerny85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocab3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Kocab2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S3Kocab2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S4Kocab2Cerny3n = 5Cerny took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocabCernyK − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.538.5−7.0per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocabCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 263 vs 486 / 84147.2%57.8%124 / 263 vs 486 / 841Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyKocab 3.00/Cerny 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.2%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 11:50J. Kocab45115612113M. Cerny46611111082
LSep 13 · 07:20J. Kocab248790M. Cerny331111113
WSep 11 · 11:50J. Kocab4691111153M. Cerny391169131
LSep 7 · 14:30J. Kocab2781090M. Cerny341112113
LSep 7 · 13:25J. Kocab2410680M. Cerny341211113
LAug 31 · 13:25J. Kocab521111111092M. Cerny49513812113
LAug 30 · 07:55J. Kocab205870M. Cerny331111113
LAug 27 · 08:55J. Kocab341139111M. Cerny4491111133
LAug 25 · 10:55J. Kocab207670M. Cerny331111113
LAug 23 · 12:20J. Kocab23311631M. Cerny4011711113
J. Kocab10
WSep 19 · 14:10J. Kocab1.451114113M. Brozek2.5551290WSep 19 · 11:55M. Brozek2.2510590J. Kocab1.571211113LSep 19 · 11:25D. Bochnak1.301111113J. Kocab3.401360WSep 17 · 13:28P. Benes1.9181251152J. Kocab1.801110115113LSep 17 · 12:20P. Benes1.73691313113J. Kocab2.001111111192WSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113LSep 17 · 10:50J. Kocab1.83311681J. Zacharda1.8311311113WSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172WSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491
M. Cerny10
WSep 19 · 12:25M. Cerny2.1011119123D. Bochnak1.678911101WSep 19 · 10:55M. Brozek3.758530M. Cerny1.251111113LSep 17 · 18:05O. Kadavy1.331113113M. Cerny3.2551170WSep 17 · 17:25D. Bochnak1.67911981M. Cerny2.1011811113LSep 17 · 16:25M. Cerny1.53119731J. Zacharda2.3891111113LSep 17 · 14:55O. Kadavy1.441111113M. Cerny2.633420LSep 17 · 14:00M. Cerny1.53111110692J. Zacharda2.38921211113WSep 17 · 12:50J. Zacharda2.50851281M. Cerny1.50111110113LSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113WSep 17 · 10:20P. Benes3.0055111182M. Cerny1.36111159113
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