TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156234
Played Sep 19Finished
Michal Brozek
Home
3.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511311––––
Martin Cerny
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Brozek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 49 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Michal Brozek at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 29–64 Martin Cerny Michal Brozek has won 29 of their 93 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:06What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-64 in 93
Cerny
Correct
gap of 35 in 93, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1723 vs Cerny 1766
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 60% vs Cerny 20%
Brozek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 70% vs Cerny 40%
Brozek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek +2 · Cerny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (20%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 3.75 / Cerny 1.25
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Cerny)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13156234
Brozek3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog43% won 69 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back15% 11 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Cerny1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 170 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it97% 85 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it85% 121 of 143
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek0wins
AwayCerny10wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek0%0 of 3
AwayCerny100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Brozek2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S3Brozek1Cerny9n = 10Cerny took 9 of 10
S4Brozek0Cerny5n = 5Cerny took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekCernyB − CBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match26.438.0−11.6per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime532 / 1013 vs 486 / 84652.5%57.5%532 / 1013 vs 486 / 846Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyBrozek 3.75/Cerny 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.4%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 14:00M. Brozek2495100M. Cerny341111123
LAug 10 · 11:25M. Brozek154650M. Cerny331111113
LAug 9 · 21:55M. Brozek30613741M. Cerny44111111113
LAug 9 · 18:20M. Brozek30117751M. Cerny3631111113
LJun 17 · 16:25M. Brozek29119181M. Cerny4291111113
LMay 28 · 13:55M. Brozek239860M. Cerny331111113
LMay 28 · 12:20M. Brozek4111118472M. Cerny48691111113
LMay 24 · 08:25M. Brozek206770M. Cerny331111113
LApr 30 · 10:20M. Brozek35781371M. Cerny44111111113
LApr 24 · 22:25M. Brozek175570M. Cerny331111113
M. Brozek10
LSep 19 · 11:55M. Brozek2.2510590J. Kocab1.571211113WSep 15 · 09:58M. Brozek1.44116117113A. Rek2.6381191122WSep 15 · 08:55A. Rek2.504990M. Brozek1.501111113LSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491LSep 15 · 07:25M. Brozek1.7311118662P. Benes2.00681111113WSep 14 · 17:04M. Brozek1.8011115113D. Hyza1.91761141WSep 14 · 16:25P. Benes1.83911571M. Brozek1.8311511113WSep 14 · 15:25M. Brozek1.831111113D. Hyza1.833850WSep 9 · 21:50M. Kulisek2.0078100M. Brozek1.731111123LSep 9 · 20:50M. Kulisek2.1041111113M. Brozek1.67118651
M. Cerny10
LSep 17 · 18:05O. Kadavy1.331113113M. Cerny3.2551170WSep 17 · 17:25D. Bochnak1.67911981M. Cerny2.1011811113LSep 17 · 16:25M. Cerny1.53119731J. Zacharda2.3891111113LSep 17 · 14:55O. Kadavy1.441111113M. Cerny2.633420LSep 17 · 14:00M. Cerny1.53111110692J. Zacharda2.38921211113WSep 17 · 12:50J. Zacharda2.50851281M. Cerny1.50111110113LSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113WSep 17 · 10:20P. Benes3.0055111182M. Cerny1.36111159113WSep 14 · 22:15O. Kadavy1.309711101M. Cerny3.4011119123LSep 14 · 21:25M. Cerny3.506180O. Kadavy1.281111113
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