TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156738
Played Sep 19Finished
Michal Brozek
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012511911––––
Jan Kocab
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:50 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeJan Kocab to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jan Kocab at 59.6%
58 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 9–17 Jan Kocab Michal Brozek has won 9 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:50What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kocab
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-17 in 26
Kocab
Correct
gap of 8 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1711 vs Kocab 1654
Brozek
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 40% vs Kocab 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 60% vs Kocab 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek -1 · Kocab -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kocab) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 2.25 / Kocab 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kocab)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13156738
Brozek2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 69 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back15% 11 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Kocab1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 51 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek2wins
AwayKocab8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKocab leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek66.7%2 of 3
AwayKocab100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek3Kocab7n = 10Kocab took 7 of 10
S2Brozek6Kocab4n = 10Brozek took 6 of 10
S3Brozek1Kocab9n = 10Kocab took 9 of 10
S4Brozek1Kocab7n = 8Kocab took 7 of 8
S5Brozek2Kocab1n = 3Brozek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekKocabB − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.841.5−9.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime529 / 1011 vs 123 / 26252.3%47%529 / 1011 vs 123 / 262Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocabBrozek 2.25/Kocab 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.3%
Kocab · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 08:25M. Brozek33911491J. Kocab4211911113
LSep 3 · 08:55M. Brozek24512341J. Kocab43111011113
LSep 1 · 07:25M. Brozek4012117462J. Kocab521091111113
WAug 28 · 14:25M. Brozek46117116113J. Kocab3511141182
LAug 28 · 13:25M. Brozek2586110J. Kocab351111133
LAug 24 · 07:55M. Brozek1810440J. Kocab341211113
WAug 14 · 20:50M. Brozek52147911113J. Kocab51121111892
LAug 10 · 12:55M. Brozek24411541J. Kocab3711411113
LAug 8 · 09:25M. Brozek25511541J. Kocab4211911113
LAug 3 · 13:25M. Brozek31413951J. Kocab44111111113
M. Brozek10
LSep 19 · 12:55M. Brozek2.63115911102D. Bochnak1.44711113123LSep 19 · 10:55M. Brozek3.758530M. Cerny1.251111113WSep 15 · 09:58M. Brozek1.44116117113A. Rek2.6381191122WSep 15 · 08:55A. Rek2.504990M. Brozek1.501111113LSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491LSep 15 · 07:25M. Brozek1.7311118662P. Benes2.00681111113WSep 14 · 17:04M. Brozek1.8011115113D. Hyza1.91761141WSep 14 · 16:25P. Benes1.83911571M. Brozek1.8311511113WSep 14 · 15:25M. Brozek1.831111113D. Hyza1.833850WSep 9 · 21:50M. Kulisek2.0078100M. Brozek1.731111123
J. Kocab10
LSep 19 · 11:25D. Bochnak1.301111113J. Kocab3.401360WSep 17 · 13:28P. Benes1.9181251152J. Kocab1.801110115113LSep 17 · 12:20P. Benes1.73691313113J. Kocab2.001111111192WSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113LSep 17 · 10:50J. Kocab1.83311681J. Zacharda1.8311311113WSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172WSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491WSep 15 · 06:55A. Rek1.83261141J. Kocab1.8311118113LSep 13 · 09:28D. Hyza1.831111113J. Kocab1.838380
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