TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156718
Played Sep 19Finished
Michal Brozek
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1175119111131012
David Bochnak
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:50 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 90 set 5, 10-12 — our read held David Bochnak at 65.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 11–9 David Bochnak David Bochnak has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bochnak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Brozek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1695 vs Bochnak 1848
Bochnak
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 40% vs Bochnak 60%
Bochnak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 60% vs Bochnak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek -2 · Bochnak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Bochnak) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 2.63 / Bochnak 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Bochnak)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13156718
Brozek2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 69 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back15% 11 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Bochnak1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 128 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 98 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek4wins
AwayBochnak6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek100%3 of 3
AwayBochnak85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek3Bochnak7n = 10Bochnak took 7 of 10
S2Brozek5Bochnak5n = 10split evenly
S3Brozek5Bochnak5n = 10split evenly
S4Brozek4Bochnak3n = 7Brozek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekBochnakBrozek − BochnakBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.736.4−2.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime529 / 1012 vs 362 / 58552.3%61.9%529 / 1012 vs 362 / 585Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakBrozek 2.63/Bochnak 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bochnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 18:55M. Brozek341111123D. Bochnak2596100
LAug 29 · 20:55M. Brozek214890D. Bochnak331111113
LAug 7 · 15:25M. Brozek4791181182D. Bochnak48116119113
LAug 2 · 22:28M. Brozek26431181D. Bochnak3811115113
LAug 2 · 18:55M. Brozek239680D. Bochnak331111113
LJul 29 · 16:55M. Brozek33913921D. Bochnak44111111113
WJul 23 · 18:35M. Brozek3911115123D. Bochnak328311101
WJul 23 · 17:25M. Brozek4011513113D. Bochnak376111191
LJul 22 · 22:33M. Brozek35891171D. Bochnak3911116113
WJul 22 · 21:25M. Brozek3961111113D. Bochnak35118791
M. Brozek10
LSep 19 · 14:10J. Kocab1.451114113M. Brozek2.5551290LSep 19 · 11:55M. Brozek2.2510590J. Kocab1.571211113LSep 19 · 10:55M. Brozek3.758530M. Cerny1.251111113WSep 15 · 09:58M. Brozek1.44116117113A. Rek2.6381191122WSep 15 · 08:55A. Rek2.504990M. Brozek1.501111113LSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491LSep 15 · 07:25M. Brozek1.7311118662P. Benes2.00681111113WSep 14 · 17:04M. Brozek1.8011115113D. Hyza1.91761141WSep 14 · 16:25P. Benes1.83911571M. Brozek1.8311511113WSep 14 · 15:25M. Brozek1.831111113D. Hyza1.833850
D. Bochnak10
LSep 19 · 12:25M. Cerny2.1011119123D. Bochnak1.678911101WSep 19 · 11:25D. Bochnak1.301111113J. Kocab3.401360WSep 17 · 18:35D. Bochnak1.44111179113J. Zacharda2.6397111182LSep 17 · 17:25D. Bochnak1.67911981M. Cerny2.1011811113WSep 17 · 15:55O. Kadavy1.619370D. Bochnak2.201111113WSep 17 · 15:25J. Zacharda2.63671251D. Bochnak1.44111110113LSep 14 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.36511941J. Zacharda2.8011811113WSep 14 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.36111115113J. Zacharda3.00781781LSep 14 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.67111212592M. Cerny2.108101411113WSep 14 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.101211113O. Kadavy1.6710740
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