TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156722
Played Sep 19Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181199111210––
David Bochnak
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:50 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 81 set 4, 12-10 — our read held David Bochnak at 55.8%
81 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 61–66 David Bochnak Martin Cerny has won 61 of their 127 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 23:50What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Bochnak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
61-66 in 127
Bochnak
Wrong
gap of 5 in 127, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1779 vs Bochnak 1838
Bochnak
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 40% vs Bochnak 80%
Bochnak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 50% vs Bochnak 70%
Bochnak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +1 · Bochnak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Bochnak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 2.10 / Bochnak 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Bochnak)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13156722
Cerny2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 47 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Bochnak1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 128 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 98 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny8wins
AwayBochnak2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny75%6 of 8
AwayBochnakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny8Bochnak2n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S2Cerny5Bochnak5n = 10split evenly
S3Cerny6Bochnak4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S4Cerny6Bochnak2n = 8Cerny took 6 of 8
S5Cerny3Bochnak2n = 5Cerny took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyBochnakC − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.837.0+4.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime485 / 840 vs 362 / 58457.7%62%485 / 840 vs 362 / 584Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakCerny 2.10/Bochnak 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 17:25M. Cerny4111811113D. Bochnak37911981
WSep 14 · 19:55M. Cerny548101411113D. Bochnak49111212592
WSep 13 · 19:25M. Cerny47111011153D. Bochnak325122131
LSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny36111130112D. Bochnak42341111133
WSep 13 · 08:50M. Cerny45114811113D. Bochnak4161111672
WSep 6 · 09:25M. Cerny331111113D. Bochnak199640
WSep 4 · 19:55M. Cerny485111110113D. Bochnak4911991282
LSep 3 · 18:55M. Cerny4412761182D. Bochnak451011112113
WAug 30 · 10:33M. Cerny331111113D. Bochnak203890
WAug 30 · 07:25M. Cerny3711114113D. Bochnak36991171
M. Cerny10
LSep 19 · 13:25J. Kocab3.001011911113M. Cerny1.3612911382WSep 19 · 10:55M. Brozek3.758530M. Cerny1.251111113LSep 17 · 18:05O. Kadavy1.331113113M. Cerny3.2551170WSep 17 · 17:25D. Bochnak1.67911981M. Cerny2.1011811113LSep 17 · 16:25M. Cerny1.53119731J. Zacharda2.3891111113LSep 17 · 14:55O. Kadavy1.441111113M. Cerny2.633420LSep 17 · 14:00M. Cerny1.53111110692J. Zacharda2.38921211113WSep 17 · 12:50J. Zacharda2.50851281M. Cerny1.50111110113LSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113WSep 17 · 10:20P. Benes3.0055111182M. Cerny1.36111159113
D. Bochnak10
WSep 19 · 12:55M. Brozek2.63115911102D. Bochnak1.44711113123WSep 19 · 11:25D. Bochnak1.301111113J. Kocab3.401360WSep 17 · 18:35D. Bochnak1.44111179113J. Zacharda2.6397111182LSep 17 · 17:25D. Bochnak1.67911981M. Cerny2.1011811113WSep 17 · 15:55O. Kadavy1.619370D. Bochnak2.201111113WSep 17 · 15:25J. Zacharda2.63671251D. Bochnak1.44111110113LSep 14 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.36511941J. Zacharda2.8011811113WSep 14 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.36111115113J. Zacharda3.00781781LSep 14 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.67111212592M. Cerny2.108101411113WSep 14 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.101211113O. Kadavy1.6710740
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