TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Jan Kocab
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811411511––––
Pavel Benes
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeJan Kocab to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Kocab above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 50 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Jan Kocab at 61.9%
50 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kocab 24–22 Pavel Benes Pavel Benes has won 22 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:40What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-22 in 46
Kocab
Wrong
gap of 2 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocab 1704 vs Benes 1673
Kocab
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocab 100% vs Benes 40%
Kocab
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocab 70% vs Benes 40%
Kocab
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocab +5 · Benes -1
Kocab
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocab 2.00 / Benes 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kocab)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13168741
Kocab2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 28 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back21% 10 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Benes1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 73 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it75% 47 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocab3wins
AwayBenes7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocab75%3 of 4
AwayBenes100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocab4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S2Kocab3Benes7n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S3Kocab4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Kocab1Benes6n = 7Benes took 6 of 7
S5Kocab2Benes1n = 3Kocab took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocabBenesK − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.438.6−3.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocabBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 264 vs 264 / 55547.4%47.6%125 / 264 vs 264 / 555Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesKocab 2.00/Benes 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 17:25J. Kocab178450P. Benes331111113
WSep 17 · 13:28J. Kocab481110115113P. Benes4181251152
LSep 17 · 12:20J. Kocab531111111192P. Benes52691313113
WSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab48111169113P. Benes3643111172
WSep 15 · 09:25J. Kocab4211911113P. Benes36911971
LSep 3 · 10:40J. Kocab389117111P. Benes4111611133
LSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab32591171P. Benes3911116113
LSep 1 · 10:30J. Kocab1851030P. Benes341112113
LSep 1 · 07:55J. Kocab2461080P. Benes341112113
LAug 31 · 14:15J. Kocab34881171P. Benes4011117113
J. Kocab10
WSep 21 · 17:58J. Kocab1.73111011113D. Hyza2.00912561WSep 21 · 15:55D. Hyza1.806980J. Kocab1.911111113WSep 21 · 15:25M. Brozek2.5051111912J. Kocab1.50119811113WSep 19 · 14:10J. Kocab1.451114113M. Brozek2.5551290WSep 19 · 13:25J. Kocab3.001011911113M. Cerny1.3612911382WSep 19 · 11:55M. Brozek2.2510590J. Kocab1.571211113LSep 19 · 11:25D. Bochnak1.301111113J. Kocab3.401360WSep 17 · 13:28P. Benes1.9181251152J. Kocab1.801110115113LSep 17 · 12:20P. Benes1.73691313113J. Kocab2.001111111192WSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113
P. Benes10
WSep 21 · 18:28P. Benes1.8011118123M. Brozek1.919711101LSep 21 · 16:25P. Benes1.8311991572M. Brozek1.839111113113WSep 21 · 14:55D. Hyza1.9181070P. Benes1.801112113LSep 17 · 13:28P. Benes1.9181251152J. Kocab1.801110115113WSep 17 · 12:20P. Benes1.73691313113J. Kocab2.001111111192LSep 17 · 11:20P. Benes2.0041050J. Zacharda1.731112113LSep 17 · 10:20P. Benes3.0055111182M. Cerny1.36111159113LSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172LSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 07:55A. Rek1.614111081P. Benes2.2011912113
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