TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vaclav Nadvornik vs Pavel Benes 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Vaclav Nadvornik
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8112111191191210
Pavel Benes
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:30 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nadvornik to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Nadvornik above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 94 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Vaclav Nadvornik at 59.3%
94 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Nadvornik 13–9 Pavel Benes Pavel Benes has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Nadvornik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-9 in 22
Nadvornik
Correct
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nadvornik 1709 vs Benes 1699
Nadvornik
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nadvornik 100% vs Benes 80%
Nadvornik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nadvornik 80% vs Benes 50%
Nadvornik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nadvornik +7 · Benes +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Nadvornik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNadvornik 1.57 / Benes 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Nadvornik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13173287
Nadvornik1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 28 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Benes2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 49 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNadvornik5wins
AwayBenes5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNadvornik83.3%5 of 6
AwayBenes100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nadvornik6Benes4n = 10Nadvornik took 6 of 10
S2Nadvornik7Benes3n = 10Nadvornik took 7 of 10
S3Nadvornik5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S4Nadvornik1Benes5n = 6Benes took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNadvornikBenesN − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.538.1−0.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNadvornikBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 309 vs 266 / 55755%47.8%170 / 309 vs 266 / 557Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadvornikNadvornik 1.57/Benes 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Nadvornik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 20 · 07:55V. Nadvornik341211113P. Benes2510780
WMay 18 · 10:25V. Nadvornik3811511113P. Benes30911461
LMay 18 · 09:25V. Nadvornik28711731P. Benes4211911113
WApr 14 · 07:25V. Nadvornik341111123P. Benes2367100
WMar 17 · 10:25V. Nadvornik441111223P. Benes3789200
LMar 15 · 16:55V. Nadvornik399111091P. Benes4111712113
LMar 5 · 18:55V. Nadvornik2915950P. Benes391711113
WMar 5 · 17:55V. Nadvornik52121775113P. Benes551015111182
LFeb 27 · 09:50V. Nadvornik531112111092P. Benes51714712113
LFeb 26 · 10:25V. Nadvornik24411721P. Benes3811511113
V. Nadvornik10
WSep 22 · 10:20V. Nadvornik1.73116711113M. Brozek2.0091111982WSep 10 · 14:25V. Nadvornik1.28116612113O. Fiklik3.15911111072WSep 10 · 13:25O. Fiklik2.505790V. Nadvornik1.501111113WSep 10 · 12:25V. Nadvornik1.672111110113A. Rek2.1011661262WSep 10 · 10:55J. Vonasek2.509133111V. Nadvornik1.50111111133WSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123LSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152WSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871LAug 25 · 10:23V. Nadvornik1.30106111762V. Jr3.401211315113
P. Benes10
WSep 22 · 10:50J. Kocab1.918980P. Benes1.801111113WSep 21 · 18:28P. Benes1.8011118123M. Brozek1.919711101WSep 21 · 17:25J. Kocab2.008450P. Benes1.731111113LSep 21 · 16:25P. Benes1.8311991572M. Brozek1.839111113113WSep 21 · 14:55D. Hyza1.9181070P. Benes1.801112113LSep 17 · 13:28P. Benes1.9181251152J. Kocab1.801110115113WSep 17 · 12:20P. Benes1.73691313113J. Kocab2.001111111192LSep 17 · 11:20P. Benes2.0041050J. Zacharda1.731112113LSep 17 · 10:20P. Benes3.0055111182M. Cerny1.36111159113LSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172
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