TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Machelski vs Jerzy Michalik 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118311911119118
Jerzy Michalik
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:24 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeJerzy Michalik to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
118311911119118
H2H Michal Machelski 26–57 Jerzy Michalik Michal Machelski has won 26 of their 83 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:24What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Michalik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-57 in 83
Michalik
Wrong
gap of 31 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1289 vs Michalik 1384
Michalik
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 20% vs Michalik 60%
Michalik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 40% vs Michalik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -4 · Michalik +1
Machelski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Michalik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.20 / Michalik 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Michalik)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13172780
Machelski2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog33% won 116 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back20% 40 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 120
Michalik1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 135 of 219
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it75% 95 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski5wins
AwayMichalik5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski40%2 of 5
AwayMichalik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski5Michalik5n = 10split evenly
S2Machelski5Michalik5n = 10split evenly
S3Machelski3Michalik7n = 10Michalik took 7 of 10
S4Machelski5Michalik3n = 8Machelski took 5 of 8
S5Machelski2Michalik1n = 3Machelski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiMichalikMachelski − MichalikBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.140.1−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiMichalikBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 1124 vs 560 / 118537.1%47.3%417 / 1124 vs 560 / 1185Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikMachelski 2.20/Michalik 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 24:00M. Machelski4391112113J. Michalik341151081
WSep 11 · 02:45M. Machelski50881112113J. Michalik48111181082
LSep 10 · 23:05M. Machelski4111661172J. Michalik46411119113
LSep 8 · 24:00M. Machelski197750J. Michalik331111113
WSep 3 · 23:45M. Machelski4513118133J. Michalik4111811111
LSep 3 · 15:50M. Machelski32116691J. Michalik4291111113
WJul 27 · 05:10M. Machelski331111113J. Michalik257990
WJul 24 · 01:55M. Machelski559131111113J. Michalik44111113182
LJul 23 · 19:55M. Machelski4011111171J. Michalik4581313113
LJul 22 · 02:20M. Machelski33412981J. Michalik43111011113
M. Machelski10
LSep 21 · 22:25M. Machelski2.509680J. Cyndera1.461111113LSep 21 · 21:10M. Machelski2.3581111892A. Kubiak1.50115611113LSep 17 · 02:35M. Machelski2.2071191292M. Baran1.611161110113LSep 17 · 01:00M. Machelski2.3853100M. Lewczuk1.531111123WSep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.25611119113K. Kwiatkowski1.5711961152WSep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski2.2071111113J. Skorupa1.61115961WSep 16 · 21:00M. Machelski2.25651513113A. Fomin1.571111131182LSep 16 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.1011811113M. Machelski1.67611541LSep 16 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.531111113M. Machelski2.388550WSep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10117139113M. Baran1.67811111192
J. Michalik10
WSep 22 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.6661290J. Michalik2.051114113WSep 21 · 23:10J. Michalik1.5411119123A. Staniczek2.254411101LSep 21 · 22:00J. Michalik2.75105111172M. Warzecha1.40121159113WSep 21 · 08:50J. Slawomir1.60371171J. Michalik2.1011119113LSep 21 · 07:30H. Tkaczyk1.30111711113J. Michalik2.80919671WSep 21 · 06:30A. Barton3.8586111192J. Michalik1.15111188113LSep 21 · 05:50D. Maszczynski3.00811611113J. Michalik1.2511911772WSep 21 · 04:30T. Kordaszewski3.958830J. Michalik1.201111113WSep 21 · 03:10W. Stechly3.65111148102J. Michalik1.17791111123LSep 18 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.611311113J. Michalik2.2011370
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