TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Machelski vs Artur Kubiak 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.35
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811115116811911
Artur Kubiak
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Machelski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
811115116811911
H2H Michal Machelski 11–34 Artur Kubiak Michal Machelski has won 11 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:35What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (61%)
Kubiak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-34 in 45
Kubiak
Correct
gap of 23 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1310 vs Kubiak 1357
Kubiak
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 60% vs Kubiak 80%
Kubiak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 40% vs Kubiak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -2 · Kubiak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kubiak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.35 / Kubiak 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kubiak)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13168713
Machelski2.35
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 17)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog33% won 116 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back20% 40 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 120
Kubiak1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 155 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it95% 75 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it84% 107 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski4wins
AwayKubiak6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKubiak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski57.1%4 of 7
AwayKubiak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski7Kubiak3n = 10Machelski took 7 of 10
S2Machelski4Kubiak6n = 10Kubiak took 6 of 10
S3Machelski6Kubiak4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S4Machelski3Kubiak5n = 8Kubiak took 5 of 8
S5Machelski0Kubiak3n = 3Kubiak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiKubiakM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.039.5+1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 1137 vs 488 / 89536.9%54.5%420 / 1137 vs 488 / 895Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakMachelski 2.35/Kubiak 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.6%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 01:00M. Machelski4311912113A. Kubiak344111091
LAug 30 · 18:55M. Machelski4591111952A. Kubiak45116611113
LAug 16 · 21:45M. Machelski4611611992A. Kubiak45611611113
LAug 16 · 17:45M. Machelski54159111182A. Kubiak541311613113
WAug 11 · 02:20M. Machelski3911116113A. Kubiak34881171
WJul 12 · 02:45M. Machelski49151211113A. Kubiak4013101341
LJul 11 · 18:25M. Machelski37981191A. Kubiak3811115113
WJul 7 · 02:20M. Machelski381512113A. Kubiak30131070
LJun 17 · 22:35M. Machelski2681170A. Kubiak351113113
LJun 17 · 15:00M. Machelski33119851A. Kubiak4071111113
M. Machelski10
LSep 17 · 02:35M. Machelski2.2071191292M. Baran1.611161110113LSep 17 · 01:00M. Machelski2.3853100M. Lewczuk1.531111123WSep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.25611119113K. Kwiatkowski1.5711961152WSep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski2.2071111113J. Skorupa1.61115961WSep 16 · 21:00M. Machelski2.25651513113A. Fomin1.571111131182LSep 16 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.1011811113M. Machelski1.67611541LSep 16 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.531111113M. Machelski2.388550WSep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10117139113M. Baran1.67811111192LSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113LSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950
A. Kubiak10
WSep 21 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.10951161A. Kubiak1.6511113113WSep 21 · 19:35A. Staniczek2.8051311842A. Kubiak1.391111411113LSep 21 · 17:35J. Cyndera1.86811511163A. Kubiak1.80113111142WSep 21 · 16:50D. Maszczynski3.40691341A. Kubiak1.28111111113WSep 21 · 15:10M. Warzecha1.57111161192A. Kubiak2.25138119113LSep 20 · 02:00A. Kubiak3.00561171M. Guzik1.2611119113LSep 20 · 24:45A. Kubiak1.8561060D. Pyrek1.851112113WSep 19 · 23:35A. Kubiak1.66127711113J. Skorupa2.05101111752LSep 19 · 22:25A. Fomin1.57891211113A. Kubiak2.20111110992LSep 19 · 21:35A. Kubiak2.501071161H. Tkaczyk1.4612117113
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