TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Witold Stechly
Home
3.65
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1171194118111012
Jerzy Michalik
Away
1.17
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:33 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeJerzy Michalik to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1171194118111012
H2H Witold Stechly 18–40 Jerzy Michalik Witold Stechly has won 18 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:33What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (76%)
Michalik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-40 in 58
Michalik
Correct
gap of 22 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stechly 1141 vs Michalik 1386
Michalik
Correct
both rated, 245 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stechly 40% vs Michalik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stechly 40% vs Michalik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stechly +2 · Michalik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Michalik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalik form (40%) is below what odds imply (85%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStechly 3.65 / Michalik 1.17
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Michalik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13165872
Stechly3.65
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 17)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog20% won 47 of 233
Down 0–1, comes back12% 19 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 108
Michalik1.17
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 134 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it75% 95 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStechly4wins
AwayMichalik6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMichalik leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStechly25%1 of 4
AwayMichalik50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stechly4Michalik6n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S2Stechly6Michalik4n = 10Stechly took 6 of 10
S3Stechly4Michalik6n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S4Stechly7Michalik3n = 10Stechly took 7 of 10
S5Stechly2Michalik5n = 7Michalik took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStechlyMichalikS − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match46.247.0−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStechlyMichalikBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 534 vs 555 / 117717.2%47.2%92 / 534 vs 555 / 1177Avg sets wonper match1.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikStechly 3.65/Michalik 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.7%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 03:30W. Stechly4451117113J. Michalik431191581
LAug 31 · 05:30W. Stechly359114111J. Michalik4411911133
WAug 27 · 19:55W. Stechly559121211113J. Michalik51111014882
WAug 10 · 08:45W. Stechly51911119113J. Michalik4311671182
LAug 6 · 23:30W. Stechly541010111492J. Michalik541212712113
LJul 30 · 01:55W. Stechly4491511182J. Michalik541113118113
LJul 27 · 08:45W. Stechly48118811102J. Michalik45811113123
WJul 23 · 23:30W. Stechly4211118123J. Michalik399911101
LJul 20 · 08:20W. Stechly4912911892J. Michalik521011911113
LJul 13 · 07:35W. Stechly4011761152J. Michalik45411118113
W. Stechly10
LSep 21 · 04:10W. Stechly5.751111891H. Tkaczyk1.0591311113WSep 17 · 04:20W. Stechly5.8511118113M. Warzecha1.08991191WSep 17 · 03:05W. Stechly5.051011711113Z. Nocun1.1112111772LSep 17 · 01:55W. Stechly1.845560K. Rybak1.791111113LSep 17 · 24:45A. Krezel1.261111113W. Stechly3.259940LSep 16 · 23:55W. Stechly2.751151041A. Staniczek1.3671112113WSep 14 · 09:10W. Stechly2.10612178113D. Maszczynski1.601110151162LSep 14 · 07:50W. Stechly4.5054100J. Slawomir1.141111123LSep 14 · 06:50W. Stechly1.39111211642T. Kordaszewski2.60614611113WSep 14 · 05:30W. Stechly1.8211119123T. Przebierala1.859811101
J. Michalik10
WSep 21 · 04:30T. Kordaszewski3.958830J. Michalik1.201111113LSep 18 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.611311113J. Michalik2.2011370LSep 18 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.41111011113J. Michalik2.71812971WSep 18 · 02:45J. Michalik1.501111123A. Staniczek2.3128100WSep 18 · 01:10J. Michalik2.44611126143J. Zelezik1.451151011122LSep 18 · 24:20A. Krezel1.801141111113J. Michalik1.8551161342WSep 17 · 23:05J. Michalik1.501113113A. Staniczek2.3131190LSep 17 · 21:30J. Michalik4.355780D. Molenda1.151111113LSep 17 · 20:20J. Michalik1.91813100A. Krezel1.801115123WSep 17 · 18:45J. Michalik2.171161117113K. Kwiatkowski1.5681171952
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