TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Witold Stechly
Home
5.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191113811911––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.05
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:21 and never touched — 88.8% is still 88.8%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
88.8%
88.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
83 points played in total.
Set by set
1191113811911––
H2H Witold Stechly 4–23 Henryk Tkaczyk Witold Stechly has won 4 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:21What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (85%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-23 in 27
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 19 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stechly 1136 vs Tkaczyk 1625
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 489 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stechly 40% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stechly 40% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stechly -1 · Tkaczyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (80%) is below what odds imply (95%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStechly 5.75 / Tkaczyk 1.05
Signal prob.11% / 89%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13165983
Stechly5.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog20% won 47 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back12% 19 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 108
Tkaczyk1.05
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 403 of 574
Up 2–0, closes it94% 228 of 243
Up 1–0, closes it85% 311 of 364
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStechly2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStechlyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTkaczyk87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stechly2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Stechly2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S3Stechly5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Stechly3Tkaczyk4n = 7Tkaczyk took 4 of 7
S5Stechly1Tkaczyk2n = 3Tkaczyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStechlyTkaczykS − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.839.8−7.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStechlyTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 535 vs 1015 / 150717.2%67.4%92 / 535 vs 1015 / 1507Avg sets wonper match1.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match33.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykStechly 5.75/Tkaczyk 1.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.8%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 04:10W. Stechly259790H. Tkaczyk331111113
LSep 11 · 24:45W. Stechly45911101142H. Tkaczyk43116123113
LAug 7 · 24:30W. Stechly25311381H. Tkaczyk3911611113
WJul 30 · 24:45W. Stechly42631111113H. Tkaczyk4311118672
WJul 24 · 03:30W. Stechly4211711133H. Tkaczyk399118111
LJul 23 · 24:45W. Stechly185760H. Tkaczyk331111113
LJul 16 · 24:45W. Stechly4611912862H. Tkaczyk518111011113
LJul 8 · 23:55W. Stechly34591191H. Tkaczyk4111118113
LJul 6 · 03:35W. Stechly32861171H. Tkaczyk4211119113
LJul 2 · 24:45W. Stechly1918100H. Tkaczyk341111123
W. Stechly10
LSep 21 · 05:30W. Stechly1.681031191A. Barton1.8712117113LSep 21 · 03:10W. Stechly3.65111148102J. Michalik1.17791111123WSep 17 · 04:20W. Stechly5.8511118113M. Warzecha1.08991191WSep 17 · 03:05W. Stechly5.051011711113Z. Nocun1.1112111772LSep 17 · 01:55W. Stechly1.845560K. Rybak1.791111113LSep 17 · 24:45A. Krezel1.261111113W. Stechly3.259940LSep 16 · 23:55W. Stechly2.751151041A. Staniczek1.3671112113WSep 14 · 09:10W. Stechly2.10612178113D. Maszczynski1.601110151162LSep 14 · 07:50W. Stechly4.5054100J. Slawomir1.141111123LSep 14 · 06:50W. Stechly1.39111211642T. Kordaszewski2.60614611113
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 21 · 05:10T. Kordaszewski6.9054100H. Tkaczyk1.021111123WSep 21 · 03:30D. Maszczynski5.00211791H. Tkaczyk1.0811811113WSep 20 · 02:45A. Fomin1.9011680H. Tkaczyk1.751311113LSep 20 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk1.40126761J. Skorupa2.75101111113WSep 20 · 24:25M. Guzik1.604390H. Tkaczyk2.201111113WSep 19 · 23:10D. Pyrek2.956370H. Tkaczyk1.361111113WSep 19 · 21:35A. Kubiak2.501071161H. Tkaczyk1.4612117113LSep 19 · 20:45M. Guzik1.681111113H. Tkaczyk2.056990WSep 19 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk1.4211112113J. Skorupa2.558111091WSep 19 · 18:25A. Fomin1.9511137692H. Tkaczyk1.749111111113
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