TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Baran vs Jacek Zelezik 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118611811––
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:36 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Jacek Zelezik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jacek Zelezik at 63.2%
71 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 2–5 Jacek Zelezik Mateusz Baran has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Baran beat Zelezik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:36What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Zelezik
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1372 vs Zelezik 1456
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 40% vs Zelezik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 40% vs Zelezik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran +1 · Zelezik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 2.38 / Zelezik 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Zelezik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13168716
Baran2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back30% 12 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Zelezik1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 186 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it96% 107 of 112
Up 1–0, closes it81% 143 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBaran2wins
AwayZelezik5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderZelezik leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaran25%1 of 4
AwayZelezik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran4Zelezik3n = 7Baran took 4 of 7
S2Baran3Zelezik4n = 7Zelezik took 4 of 7
S3Baran3Zelezik4n = 7Zelezik took 4 of 7
S4Baran1Zelezik4n = 5Zelezik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricBaranZelezikB − ZBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match34.635.9−1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime83 / 157 vs 388 / 71752.9%54.1%83 / 157 vs 388 / 717Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.536.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikBaran 2.38/Zelezik 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.2%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 21 · 21:00M. Baran30511681J. Zelezik4111811113
WSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran331111113J. Zelezik172690
LAug 31 · 22:50M. Baran34115991J. Zelezik3741111113
LAug 31 · 14:10M. Baran4311811762J. Zelezik45911311113
LAug 26 · 03:05M. Baran28117371J. Zelezik4181111113
LAug 25 · 21:05M. Baran3115880J. Zelezik391711113
WJul 20 · 18:30M. Baran43101111113J. Zelezik31125681
M. Baran10
WSep 21 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.5091181272M. Baran2.501161110113LSep 21 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.7312311113M. Baran2.001011651LSep 21 · 18:10M. Baran1.677680M. Karpiuk2.101111113WSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran2.381111113J. Zelezik1.532690LSep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.531111113M. Baran2.388730LSep 18 · 02:35M. Baran1.91961281K. Gudzik1.80111110113LSep 18 · 01:00M. Baran3.751010111252M. Guzik1.251212710113WSep 17 · 23:45M. Baran2.20117116113Z. Nocun1.6171171152LSep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.531249121M. Brunner2.38101111143WSep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.8311616113G. Mucha1.833111491
J. Zelezik10
WSep 21 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.917930J. Zelezik1.801111113LSep 21 · 19:20M. Karpiuk3.2561111113J. Zelezik1.33117861LSep 21 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski2.50111164123J. Zelezik1.50941111102LSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran2.381111113J. Zelezik1.532690WSep 21 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1013117572J. Zelezik1.671151111113WSep 18 · 04:40A. Krezel2.604780J. Zelezik1.341111113WSep 18 · 03:55A. Staniczek3.305850J. Zelezik1.211111113LSep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.901111113J. Zelezik1.809670LSep 18 · 01:10J. Michalik2.44611126143J. Zelezik1.451151011122LSep 17 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.671111113J. Zelezik1.998970
Upcoming Matches
M. Baran
Sep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38K. Kwiatkowski1.53—Sep 21 · 23:30M. Baran2.75A. Zmijewski1.40—Sep 22 · 24:30M. Baran2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 22 · 01:50M. Baran1.73M. Karpiuk2.00—Sep 22 · 17:30M. Baran—M. Brunner——Sep 22 · 19:10M. Baran—P. Gesiarz——Sep 22 · 19:55M. Baran—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 22 · 21:55M. Baran—M. Karpiuk——Sep 22 · 22:40M. Baran—K. Delikatny——Sep 22 · 23:30M. Baran—J. Michalik——
J. Zelezik
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