TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Artur Zmijewski
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911311––––
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Zmijewski above · Jacek Zelezik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 52 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 56.2%
52 points played in total.
H2H Artur Zmijewski 4–3 Jacek Zelezik Jacek Zelezik has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:53What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1475 vs Zelezik 1449
Zmijewski
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 60% vs Zelezik 40%
Zmijewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 60% vs Zelezik 30%
Zmijewski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski -1 · Zelezik -3
Zelezik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 1.91 / Zelezik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zelezik)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13165480
Zmijewski1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 13 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Zelezik1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 186 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it96% 107 of 112
Up 1–0, closes it81% 143 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZmijewski4wins
AwayZelezik3wins
5 of 7 to a deciderZmijewski leads 4–3, and 5 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmijewskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZelezik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmijewski2Zelezik5n = 7Zelezik took 5 of 7
S2Zmijewski4Zelezik3n = 7Zmijewski took 4 of 7
S3Zmijewski5Zelezik2n = 7Zmijewski took 5 of 7
S4Zmijewski3Zelezik3n = 6split evenly
S5Zmijewski3Zelezik2n = 5Zmijewski took 3 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricZmijewskiZelezikZmijewski − ZelezikBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match45.341.4+3.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 154 vs 386 / 71559.7%54%92 / 154 vs 386 / 715Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikZmijewski 1.91/Zelezik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 2 · 22:55A. Zmijewski50811118123J. Zelezik50119911102
WSep 2 · 16:55A. Zmijewski331111113J. Zelezik146440
LAug 21 · 02:45A. Zmijewski50121151392J. Zelezik531061115113
WAug 20 · 23:05A. Zmijewski501051113113J. Zelezik50121181182
WAug 20 · 24:10A. Zmijewski49971111113J. Zelezik4111118382
LAug 19 · 20:30A. Zmijewski34911681J. Zelezik3411111113
LAug 11 · 01:10A. Zmijewski51991111112J. Zelezik48111158133
A. Zmijewski10
LSep 21 · 18:30K. Kwiatkowski2.2091111113A. Zmijewski1.61116561WSep 21 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10111661A. Zmijewski1.6711911113WSep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.22101114113M. Karpiuk4.001241251WSep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.531111113M. Baran2.388730LSep 21 · 02:10A. Zmijewski1.405128111J. Skorupa2.75111011133WSep 21 · 24:35K. Rybak9.007190A. Zmijewski1.041111113LSep 20 · 23:45Z. Nocun2.25127115113A. Zmijewski1.57101181172WSep 20 · 22:55A. Zmijewski1.3611136173G. Mucha3.0071111151LSep 20 · 21:45A. Zmijewski2.7511771342M. Guzik1.407111111113WSep 20 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.501111123J. Skorupa2.5067100
J. Zelezik10
LSep 21 · 19:20M. Karpiuk3.2561111113J. Zelezik1.33117861LSep 21 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski2.50111164123J. Zelezik1.50941111102LSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran2.381111113J. Zelezik1.532690WSep 21 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1013117572J. Zelezik1.671151111113WSep 18 · 04:40A. Krezel2.604780J. Zelezik1.341111113WSep 18 · 03:55A. Staniczek3.305850J. Zelezik1.211111113LSep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.901111113J. Zelezik1.809670LSep 18 · 01:10J. Michalik2.44611126143J. Zelezik1.451151011122LSep 17 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.671111113J. Zelezik1.998970LSep 17 · 22:40A. Krezel1.8571111113J. Zelezik1.80115551
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