TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611117118116––
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Jacek Zelezik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jacek Zelezik at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 2–5 Jacek Zelezik Mateusz Karpiuk has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Zelezik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Zelezik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1301 vs Zelezik 1467
Zelezik
Wrong
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 60% vs Zelezik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 60% vs Zelezik 40%
Karpiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +1 · Zelezik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 3.25 / Zelezik 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Zelezik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13168354
Karpiuk3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 58 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Zelezik1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 186 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it96% 107 of 112
Up 1–0, closes it81% 143 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKarpiuk2wins
AwayZelezik5wins
2 of 7 to a deciderZelezik leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiukn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayZelezik71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk0Zelezik7n = 7Zelezik took 7 of 7
S2Karpiuk5Zelezik2n = 7Karpiuk took 5 of 7
S3Karpiuk3Zelezik4n = 7Zelezik took 4 of 7
S4Karpiuk2Zelezik4n = 6Zelezik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKarpiukZelezikK − ZBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set07−7of 7Avg pointsper match37.942.6−4.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 297 vs 386 / 71443.8%54.1%130 / 297 vs 386 / 714Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikKarpiuk 3.25/Zelezik 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.3%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk37971291J. Zelezik43111110113
LSep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk4371211582J. Zelezik501110711113
WAug 21 · 03:55M. Karpiuk4051311113J. Zelezik401111991
LAug 20 · 21:55M. Karpiuk188460J. Zelezik331111113
LJul 20 · 17:20M. Karpiuk357117101J. Zelezik4311911123
WJul 6 · 02:10M. Karpiuk507111011113J. Zelezik4311912472
LJul 5 · 20:05M. Karpiuk4291310101J. Zelezik46111112123
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 21 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.40119111092M. Karpiuk2.75511812113WSep 21 · 18:10M. Baran1.677680M. Karpiuk2.101111113LSep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.22101114113M. Karpiuk4.001241251LSep 21 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski1.57111116113M. Karpiuk2.25791881WSep 16 · 05:05K. Rybak2.27119961M. Karpiuk1.5791111113WSep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.851111113M. Baran1.858960LSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner1.8311311113M. Karpiuk1.81611561WSep 16 · 01:30J. Skorupa1.7111127682M. Karpiuk2.009101111113WSep 15 · 23:55J. Michalik1.621147111M. Karpiuk2.0791111133WSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner1.838650M. Karpiuk1.811111113
J. Zelezik10
WSep 21 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.917930J. Zelezik1.801111113LSep 21 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski2.50111164123J. Zelezik1.50941111102LSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran2.381111113J. Zelezik1.532690WSep 21 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1013117572J. Zelezik1.671151111113WSep 18 · 04:40A. Krezel2.604780J. Zelezik1.341111113WSep 18 · 03:55A. Staniczek3.305850J. Zelezik1.211111113LSep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.901111113J. Zelezik1.809670LSep 18 · 01:10J. Michalik2.44611126143J. Zelezik1.451151011122LSep 17 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.671111113J. Zelezik1.998970LSep 17 · 22:40A. Krezel1.8571111113J. Zelezik1.80115551
Upcoming Matches
M. Karpiuk
Sep 21 · 21:20M. Karpiuk2.20K. Kwiatkowski1.61—Sep 21 · 22:50M. Karpiuk3.75A. Zmijewski1.25—Sep 21 · 23:50M. Karpiuk2.75M. Lewczuk1.40—Sep 22 · 24:50M. Karpiuk3.00J. Zelezik1.36—Sep 22 · 01:50M. Karpiuk2.00M. Baran1.73—Sep 22 · 17:55M. Karpiuk—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 22 · 19:30M. Karpiuk—K. Delikatny——Sep 22 · 20:45M. Karpiuk—P. Gesiarz——Sep 22 · 21:55M. Karpiuk—M. Baran——Sep 22 · 23:05M. Karpiuk—M. Brunner——
J. Zelezik
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.