TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Adam Kral
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118911118811811
Frantisek Balcar
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Kral above · Frantisek Balcar below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Adam Kral at 58.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kral 9–2 Frantisek Balcar Frantisek Balcar has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:04What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kral
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-2 in 11
Kral
Wrong
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kral 1513 vs Balcar 1526
Balcar
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kral 60% vs Balcar 80%
Balcar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kral 60% vs Balcar 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kral +1 · Balcar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kral)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balcar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKral 1.57 / Balcar 2.25
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kral)-0.9pp
TT Cup · #13166587
Kral1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 49 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it73% 35 of 48
Balcar2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 38 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKral8wins
AwayBalcar2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKral leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKral77.8%7 of 9
AwayBalcarn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kral9Balcar1n = 10Kral took 9 of 10
S2Kral4Balcar6n = 10Balcar took 6 of 10
S3Kral4Balcar6n = 10Balcar took 6 of 10
S4Kral5Balcar3n = 8Kral took 5 of 8
S5Kral5Balcar1n = 6Kral took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKralBalcarK − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match43.539.5+4.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKralBalcarBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 777 vs 115 / 23552.4%48.9%407 / 777 vs 115 / 235Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralKral 1.57/Balcar 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Balcar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 14:35A. Kral4211961152F. Balcar45511117113
WSep 4 · 13:25A. Kral47111294113F. Balcar41210111172
WSep 1 · 16:20A. Kral4111811113F. Balcar36811981
WJul 6 · 18:05A. Kral521171013113F. Balcar49611121192
LJul 6 · 15:55A. Kral34117791F. Balcar3631111113
WApr 21 · 11:20A. Kral341111123F. Balcar2798100
WMar 31 · 21:25A. Kral49145811113F. Balcar48121111772
WMar 10 · 13:50A. Kral49111188113F. Balcar4489111152
WDec 6 · 12:50A. Kral50891111113F. Balcar4511116892
WDec 6 · 09:50A. Kral371111153F. Balcar2429130
A. Kral10
WSep 21 · 10:55A. Kral2.0011811113P. Chlumsky1.73311881LSep 19 · 10:34J. Kulveit1.80116115113A. Kral1.9091171192WSep 19 · 09:25J. Dvorak1.7361161192A. Kral2.00116117113WSep 19 · 08:25A. Kral1.5711711123R. Jamrich2.259119101LSep 19 · 06:55J. Kulveit1.80117118113A. Kral1.9191191132WSep 17 · 14:09A. Kral1.501411113L. Moravec2.5012840LSep 17 · 12:55M. Filipek1.731111143A. Kral2.0096120LSep 17 · 12:25F. Marat1.83128145123A. Kral1.8310111211102WSep 17 · 11:25A. Kral1.5311713113L. Moravec2.384111181WSep 15 · 13:55P. Moravec1.5011871192A. Kral2.50811117113
F. Balcar10
WSep 21 · 11:25M. Filipek1.801312111372F. Balcar1.911514711113LSep 16 · 13:59F. Balcar2.00891391T. Hnizdil1.73111111113WSep 16 · 12:20F. Balcar1.8011118113B. Budik1.90781181WSep 16 · 11:20F. Balcar2.00481111113T. Hnizdil1.7311113972WSep 16 · 10:20F. Balcar1.911411113113M. Filipek1.8016451162WSep 7 · 10:33D. Pasek2.6381171162F. Balcar1.44113117113WSep 7 · 09:25M. Filipek1.831196101F. Balcar1.8361111123LSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113WSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163WSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.