TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Adam Kral
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113811118118––
Petr Chlumsky
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Kral above · Petr Chlumsky below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Petr Chlumsky at 57.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kral 6–12 Petr Chlumsky Adam Kral has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:05What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chlumsky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-12 in 18
Chlumsky
Wrong
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kral 1513 vs Chlumsky 1448
Kral
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kral 60% vs Chlumsky 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kral 50% vs Chlumsky 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kral -1 · Chlumsky +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Chlumsky) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKral 2.00 / Chlumsky 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Chlumsky)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13166632
Kral2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 87 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 52
Chlumsky1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 15)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 18 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it75% 9 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKral4wins
AwayChlumsky6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChlumsky leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKral37.5%3 of 8
AwayChlumskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kral8Chlumsky2n = 10Kral took 8 of 10
S2Kral4Chlumsky6n = 10Chlumsky took 6 of 10
S3Kral4Chlumsky6n = 10Chlumsky took 6 of 10
S4Kral4Chlumsky6n = 10Chlumsky took 6 of 10
S5Kral1Chlumsky3n = 4Chlumsky took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKralChlumskyK − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.342.1+0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKralChlumskyBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 777 vs 135 / 29852.4%45.3%407 / 777 vs 135 / 298Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChlumskyKral 2.00/Chlumsky 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Chlumsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 10:55A. Kral4111811113P. Chlumsky30311881
LSep 15 · 11:25A. Kral4110101471P. Chlumsky47121212113
WSep 9 · 11:55A. Kral49911116123P. Chlumsky50119911102
LSep 4 · 10:55A. Kral4911991192P. Chlumsky47711117113
WJul 30 · 09:53A. Kral4111811113P. Chlumsky28211871
LJul 30 · 07:25A. Kral4411116792P. Chlumsky49971111113
LApr 18 · 08:55A. Kral32125691P. Chlumsky43101111113
WApr 10 · 08:25A. Kral4111116133P. Chlumsky356711111
LMar 28 · 10:25A. Kral4311117141P. Chlumsky4771311163
LSep 20 · 13:25A. Kral4211117672P. Chlumsky45391111113
A. Kral10
LSep 21 · 11:55A. Kral1.5711911882F. Balcar2.25811811113LSep 19 · 10:34J. Kulveit1.80116115113A. Kral1.9091171192WSep 19 · 09:25J. Dvorak1.7361161192A. Kral2.00116117113WSep 19 · 08:25A. Kral1.5711711123R. Jamrich2.259119101LSep 19 · 06:55J. Kulveit1.80117118113A. Kral1.9191191132WSep 17 · 14:09A. Kral1.501411113L. Moravec2.5012840LSep 17 · 12:55M. Filipek1.731111143A. Kral2.0096120LSep 17 · 12:25F. Marat1.83128145123A. Kral1.8310111211102WSep 17 · 11:25A. Kral1.5311713113L. Moravec2.384111181WSep 15 · 13:55P. Moravec1.5011871192A. Kral2.50811117113
P. Chlumsky10
LSep 21 · 12:25P. Chlumsky1.573790M. Filipek2.251111113WSep 15 · 14:24D. Sochor2.10117116102P. Chlumsky1.67611811123WSep 15 · 12:55D. Sochor1.83781181P. Chlumsky1.8311119113LSep 15 · 12:25P. Moravec1.57116124113P. Chlumsky2.25711101132WSep 15 · 11:25P. Chlumsky1.83121212113A. Kral1.8310101471LSep 9 · 13:58P. Chlumsky1.83121191182L. Moravec1.83148115113WSep 9 · 12:55P. Chlumsky2.0012713113L. Moravec1.7310111171LSep 9 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.73119911102A. Kral2.00911116123LSep 9 · 10:55P. Chlumsky2.2551111132D. Sykora1.57117711113LSep 8 · 09:53J. Srnka1.804111011133P. Chlumsky1.91119127112
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