TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156724
Played Sep 19Finished
Jakub Dvorak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611116611117911
Adam Kral
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:52 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Dvorak to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Dvorak above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Dvorak at 54.5%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dvorak 29–21 Adam Kral Adam Kral has won 21 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-21 in 50
Dvorak
Wrong
gap of 8 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1514 vs Kral 1501
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 60% vs Kral 40%
Dvorak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 70% vs Kral 40%
Dvorak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -1 · Kral +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.73 / Kral 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13156724
Dvorak1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 29 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Kral2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 87 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back26% 27 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak7wins
AwayKral3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak83.3%5 of 6
AwayKral50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak6Kral4n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S2Dvorak7Kral3n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S3Dvorak4Kral6n = 10Kral took 6 of 10
S4Dvorak7Kral3n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakKralD − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.738.7+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakKralBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 352 vs 408 / 77949.4%52.4%174 / 352 vs 408 / 779Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.040.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.73/Kral 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 09:25J. Dvorak48121312113A. Kral4410111491
LAug 13 · 15:20J. Dvorak44111011662A. Kral48912511113
LAug 3 · 16:20J. Dvorak411511781A. Kral4817911113
WAug 2 · 16:50J. Dvorak4391211113A. Kral331110571
LJul 19 · 07:20J. Dvorak33861181A. Kral3911116113
WMay 31 · 08:55J. Dvorak4011116123A. Kral346711101
WMay 30 · 11:25J. Dvorak4491113113A. Kral321141161
WMay 23 · 10:30J. Dvorak491151111113A. Kral4471113672
WMay 23 · 08:25J. Dvorak4211119113A. Kral32941181
WMay 14 · 17:29J. Dvorak43111110113A. Kral33771271
J. Dvorak10
LSep 19 · 10:04J. Dvorak1.619850R. Jamrich2.201111113LSep 19 · 07:55J. Kulveit1.6714117113J. Dvorak2.101291151WSep 19 · 07:25R. Jamrich2.0041111892J. Dvorak1.73114711113LSep 18 · 18:30J. Dvorak1.65119181182D. Tichy2.109111613113WSep 18 · 17:25J. Dvorak1.7311118113F. Marat2.00861171WSep 18 · 15:55R. Jamrich1.5710911111J. Dvorak2.2512117133WSep 18 · 15:25D. Tichy2.0011129862J. Dvorak1.735101111113WSep 16 · 17:49M. Dvorak1.679750J. Dvorak2.101111113LSep 16 · 16:50J. Dvorak1.91961171M. Dvorak1.8011119113WSep 16 · 15:20Z. Zahradka2.0081215842J. Dvorak1.7311101311113
A. Kral10
LSep 19 · 10:34J. Kulveit1.80116115113A. Kral1.9091171192WSep 19 · 08:25A. Kral1.5711711123R. Jamrich2.259119101LSep 19 · 06:55J. Kulveit1.80117118113A. Kral1.9191191132WSep 17 · 14:09A. Kral1.501411113L. Moravec2.5012840LSep 17 · 12:55M. Filipek1.731111143A. Kral2.0096120LSep 17 · 12:25F. Marat1.83128145123A. Kral1.8310111211102WSep 17 · 11:25A. Kral1.5311713113L. Moravec2.384111181WSep 15 · 13:55P. Moravec1.5011871192A. Kral2.50811117113LSep 15 · 13:25A. Kral2.10611881P. Moravec1.6711511113LSep 15 · 11:55D. Sochor2.50115711113A. Kral1.5091111892
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