TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13155131
Played Sep 18Finished
Jakub Dvorak
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11991118161113811
Dominik Tichy
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:09 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Dvorak to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Dvorak above · Dominik Tichy below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 18-16
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 7-10
Point 115 set 5, 7-10 — our read held Jakub Dvorak at 58.8%
115 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jakub Dvorak 10–8 Dominik Tichy Dominik Tichy has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Dvorak beat Tichy 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:09What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Dvorak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1531 vs Tichy 1451
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 80% vs Tichy 40%
Dvorak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 70% vs Tichy 40%
Dvorak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +4 · Tichy +1
Dvorak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dvorak) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.65 / Tichy 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Dvorak)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13155131
Dvorak1.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 27 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Tichy2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 22 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak8wins
AwayTichy2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak100%5 of 5
AwayTichy40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak5Tichy5n = 10split evenly
S2Dvorak6Tichy4n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S3Dvorak7Tichy3n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S4Dvorak4Tichy2n = 6Dvorak took 4 of 6
S5Dvorak4Tichy1n = 5Dvorak took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakTichyD − TBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.833.6+7.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakTichyBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 349 vs 169 / 26849.6%63.1%173 / 349 vs 169 / 268Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.65/Tichy 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.2%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tichy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 15:25J. Dvorak485101111113D. Tichy4611129862
WSep 16 · 14:50J. Dvorak331111113D. Tichy227690
LSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak219480D. Tichy331111113
WAug 29 · 08:25J. Dvorak49911117113D. Tichy3311431142
WAug 28 · 18:30J. Dvorak4111118113D. Tichy32861171
WAug 28 · 15:25J. Dvorak331111113D. Tichy204970
LAug 13 · 14:50J. Dvorak537131111112D. Tichy47111544133
WAug 9 · 06:55J. Dvorak452111011113D. Tichy4411412892
WAug 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak331111113D. Tichy168170
WAug 3 · 14:50J. Dvorak521112117113D. Tichy4381471132
J. Dvorak10
WSep 18 · 17:25J. Dvorak1.7311118113F. Marat2.00861171WSep 18 · 15:55R. Jamrich1.5710911111J. Dvorak2.2512117133WSep 18 · 15:25D. Tichy2.0011129862J. Dvorak1.735101111113WSep 16 · 17:49M. Dvorak1.679750J. Dvorak2.101111113LSep 16 · 16:50J. Dvorak1.91961171M. Dvorak1.8011119113WSep 16 · 15:20Z. Zahradka2.0081215842J. Dvorak1.7311101311113WSep 16 · 14:50D. Tichy1.807690J. Dvorak1.911111113WSep 9 · 18:05M. Dvorak1.8011971182J. Dvorak1.91811119113LSep 9 · 17:25J. Dvorak3.0087111182D. Sykora1.36111187113LSep 9 · 15:55M. Beran1.7391111113J. Dvorak2.00115141
D. Tichy10
WSep 18 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.2049100D. Tichy1.611111123LSep 18 · 16:25F. Marat2.385121111113D. Tichy1.5311146432LSep 18 · 15:25D. Tichy2.0011129862J. Dvorak1.735101111113WSep 16 · 17:19Z. Zahradka1.73712561D. Tichy2.00111011113LSep 16 · 16:20Z. Zahradka2.201111113D. Tichy1.613670LSep 16 · 15:50M. Dvorak2.00115811113D. Tichy1.7361111232LSep 16 · 14:50D. Tichy1.807690J. Dvorak1.911111113WSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123WSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113LSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441
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