TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Radek Benes
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91110121191161210
Michal Moravec
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:33 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 101 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Michal Moravec at 54.5%
101 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 24–27 Michal Moravec Radek Benes has won 24 of their 51 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-27 in 51
Moravec
Wrong
gap of 3 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1553 vs Moravec 1585
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 40% vs Moravec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 40% vs Moravec 70%
Moravec
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -1 · Moravec -3
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 2.00 / Moravec 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moravec)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13166435
Benes2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 58 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back25% 19 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Moravec1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 49 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it77% 36 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes5wins
AwayMoravec5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes50%2 of 4
AwayMoravec50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes4Moravec6n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S2Benes5Moravec5n = 10split evenly
S3Benes6Moravec4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Benes4Moravec3n = 7Benes took 4 of 7
S5Benes2Moravec2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesMoravecB − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.341.2+1.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime502 / 969 vs 193 / 38351.8%50.4%502 / 969 vs 193 / 383Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecBenes 2.00/Moravec 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 12:10R. Benes331111113M. Moravec236980
WAug 29 · 16:15R. Benes516111211113M. Moravec4811814872
LAug 3 · 12:45R. Benes5611121210112M. Moravec545141012133
LAug 3 · 10:15R. Benes2495100M. Moravec341111123
WJul 28 · 10:10R. Benes341211113M. Moravec2810990
LJul 27 · 13:20R. Benes53913111192M. Moravec50111549113
LJul 27 · 10:10R. Benes361171171M. Moravec4413119113
WJul 22 · 13:10R. Benes539111111113M. Moravec4611513892
WJul 22 · 10:10R. Benes4281112113M. Moravec391191091
LJul 14 · 10:15R. Benes411191381M. Moravec4691115113
R. Benes10
LSep 21 · 09:19R. Benes2.0011116101T. Krenek1.7313911123WSep 21 · 08:15I. Heuman2.10119861R. Benes1.6751111113LSep 21 · 07:15R. Benes1.807890D. Pawlik1.911111113WSep 21 · 05:45T. Krenek1.80117991R. Benes1.9171111113LSep 19 · 13:15F. Chaloupka1.6081111113R. Benes2.07117881WSep 19 · 12:15R. Sedlacek2.008680R. Benes1.731111113LSep 19 · 11:15R. Benes2.10611461F. Chaloupka1.6711911113WSep 19 · 09:45K. Kleprlik2.0091171392R. Benes1.731181111113LSep 19 · 08:45R. Sedlacek1.911511129113R. Benes1.80138141192LSep 19 · 08:15R. Benes1.73510120R. Sedlacek2.001112143
M. Moravec10
LSep 21 · 10:45T. Krenek1.9112811113M. Moravec1.801011691LSep 18 · 16:55K. Baros2.50111111113M. Moravec1.50871351LSep 18 · 15:45A. Cizek2.751411113M. Moravec1.4012730LSep 18 · 15:15K. Baros2.6311128113M. Moravec1.449101181WSep 18 · 14:15M. Moravec1.3381114113T. Molin3.251181281WSep 17 · 17:15M. Moravec1.5011119113K. Baros2.50981151WSep 17 · 15:40A. Cizek2.505118111M. Moravec1.5011811133WSep 17 · 15:10K. Baros2.50911781M. Moravec1.5011711113WSep 17 · 14:10M. Moravec1.501111113T. Molin2.507870WSep 16 · 13:10M. Moravec1.731112123D. Pawlik2.00710100
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