TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Tomas Krenek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210811116119––
Michal Moravec
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Michal Moravec at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 22–16 Michal Moravec Michal Moravec has won 16 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:05What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-16 in 38
Krenek
Correct
gap of 6 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1700 vs Moravec 1585
Krenek
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 80% vs Moravec 40%
Krenek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 70% vs Moravec 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek +4 · Moravec -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krenek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.91 / Moravec 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krenek)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13166631
Krenek1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog56% won 106 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back41% 41 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Moravec1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 49 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it77% 36 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek5wins
AwayMoravec5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenek66.7%4 of 6
AwayMoravec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek6Moravec4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S2Krenek4Moravec6n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S3Krenek8Moravec2n = 10Krenek took 8 of 10
S4Krenek3Moravec3n = 6split evenly
S5Krenek1Moravec3n = 4Moravec took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekMoravecK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.239.2+2.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime481 / 942 vs 193 / 38351.1%50.4%481 / 942 vs 193 / 383Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekKrenek 1.91/Moravec 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 12:35T. Krenek331111113M. Moravec195590
LAug 31 · 10:40T. Krenek561310131192M. Moravec561112157113
WAug 18 · 15:40T. Krenek547111411113M. Moravec53118121392
WJul 13 · 12:15T. Krenek331111113M. Moravec205960
WJul 9 · 12:45T. Krenek361114113M. Moravec2761290
LJul 9 · 12:10T. Krenek481111115102M. Moravec52913711123
LJun 30 · 10:10T. Krenek4989121192M. Moravec481111105113
LJun 13 · 15:40T. Krenek35891261M. Moravec43111110113
LJun 9 · 16:10T. Krenek228590M. Moravec331111113
WJun 3 · 12:35T. Krenek46131012113M. Moravec4111121081
T. Krenek10
WSep 21 · 09:45T. Krenek1.83116115113T. Kindl1.8321151192WSep 21 · 09:19R. Benes2.0011116101T. Krenek1.7313911123WSep 21 · 07:45T. Krenek1.73411811113D. Pawlik2.0011311482WSep 21 · 06:45T. Krenek1.80111311113I. Heuman1.91815771LSep 21 · 05:45T. Krenek1.80117991R. Benes1.9171111113LSep 18 · 13:15T. Krenek1.83109130J. Skvrna1.831211153WSep 18 · 12:15R. Benes1.73461151T. Krenek2.0011113113LSep 18 · 11:15T. Krenek1.911199111J. Skvrna1.8071111133WSep 18 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.73117381T. Krenek2.0071111113WSep 18 · 09:13T. Krenek1.8311811113R. Benes1.83811571
M. Moravec10
LSep 21 · 10:15R. Benes2.009101111123M. Moravec1.73111296102LSep 18 · 16:55K. Baros2.50111111113M. Moravec1.50871351LSep 18 · 15:45A. Cizek2.751411113M. Moravec1.4012730LSep 18 · 15:15K. Baros2.6311128113M. Moravec1.449101181WSep 18 · 14:15M. Moravec1.3381114113T. Molin3.251181281WSep 17 · 17:15M. Moravec1.5011119113K. Baros2.50981151WSep 17 · 15:40A. Cizek2.505118111M. Moravec1.5011811133WSep 17 · 15:10K. Baros2.50911781M. Moravec1.5011711113WSep 17 · 14:10M. Moravec1.501111113T. Molin2.507870WSep 16 · 13:10M. Moravec1.731112123D. Pawlik2.00710100
Upcoming Matches
T. Krenek
Nothing scheduled
M. Moravec
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.