TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Lukas Adam
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115811811116116
Matus Zelinka
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 88 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Matus Zelinka at 62.4%
88 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 9–17 Matus Zelinka Lukas Adam has won 9 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zelinka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-17 in 26
Zelinka
Wrong
gap of 8 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1737 vs Zelinka 1769
Zelinka
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 40% vs Zelinka 80%
Zelinka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 50% vs Zelinka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam -1 · Zelinka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Zelinka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelinka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 2.38 / Zelinka 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Zelinka)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13166376
Adam2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 53 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back24% 14 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Zelinka1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 65 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam5wins
AwayZelinka5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam57.1%4 of 7
AwayZelinka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam7Zelinka3n = 10Adam took 7 of 10
S2Adam4Zelinka6n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S3Adam2Zelinka8n = 10Zelinka took 8 of 10
S4Adam4Zelinka4n = 8split evenly
S5Adam3Zelinka2n = 5Adam took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamZelinkaA − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.039.8−1.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 544 vs 206 / 38851.8%53.1%282 / 544 vs 206 / 388Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaAdam 2.38/Zelinka 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 08:48L. Adam4071111113M. Zelinka32116961
LAug 11 · 06:15L. Adam167540M. Zelinka331111113
LAug 10 · 09:15L. Adam3711611452M. Zelinka46511811113
WJul 29 · 08:18L. Adam48131193123M. Zelinka521191111102
LJul 29 · 07:15L. Adam32134781M. Zelinka44111111113
WJul 28 · 10:45L. Adam50119712113M. Zelinka40311111052
WMay 14 · 06:15L. Adam4011117113M. Zelinka28631181
LApr 27 · 10:30L. Adam4111761162M. Zelinka46711116113
LApr 21 · 12:53L. Adam2999110M. Zelinka351111133
WApr 21 · 11:45L. Adam47111168113M. Zelinka4258111172
L. Adam10
WSep 21 · 11:15M. Stibor1.671511911102L. Adam2.10179119123LSep 21 · 09:45L. Adam1.5315560R. Pisa2.381711113WSep 15 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73119871L. Adam2.0071111113LSep 15 · 07:15L. Adam2.009390L. Dobias1.731111113WSep 15 · 06:15L. Adam3.001171112113P. Wasik1.36311131062LSep 15 · 05:15L. Adam2.0011891192O. Kaderabek1.73411115113WSep 11 · 16:54L. Adam2.2071111123D. Gasparovic1.611188101LSep 11 · 15:45L. Adam1.67911912102M. Makara2.101171110123WSep 11 · 14:15A. Snr2.108860L. Adam1.671111113WSep 11 · 13:45D. Gasparovic1.4011981152L. Adam2.75411113113
M. Zelinka10
LSep 21 · 09:15M. Stibor2.251111113M. Zelinka1.575780WSep 20 · 12:43R. Pisa2.50661181M. Zelinka1.5011116113WSep 20 · 11:15M. Zelinka1.6111611113O. Kaderabek2.20711591WSep 20 · 10:15M. Zelinka1.731111113R. Pisa2.007980WSep 20 · 09:15M. Zelinka1.9131111113M. Makara1.80118911LSep 10 · 16:44M. Zelinka1.4010690L. Svoboda2.751211113WSep 10 · 15:45L. Svoboda2.503990M. Zelinka1.501111113LSep 10 · 14:45J. Sr1.8311126113M. Zelinka1.837101151LSep 10 · 13:15S. Rejent2.50111146133M. Zelinka1.50741111112WSep 10 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.0012116113L. Dobias1.731091191
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.