TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Stibor
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
15171199111191012
Lukas Adam
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Stibor to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Lukas Adam below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 114 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Michal Stibor at 56.2%
114 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 27–23 Lukas Adam Lukas Adam has won 23 of their 50 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:39What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stibor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-23 in 50
Stibor
Wrong
gap of 4 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1719 vs Adam 1758
Adam
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 40% vs Adam 60%
Adam
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 30% vs Adam 60%
Adam
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor -1 · Adam +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Stibor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 1.67 / Adam 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Stibor)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166268
Stibor1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 65 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it82% 44 of 54
Adam2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 53 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back24% 14 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStibor5wins
AwayAdam5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStibor83.3%5 of 6
AwayAdam100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor6Adam4n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S2Stibor5Adam5n = 10split evenly
S3Stibor6Adam4n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S4Stibor4Adam5n = 9Adam took 5 of 9
S5Stibor2Adam3n = 5Adam took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStiborAdamS − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.440.5+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 335 vs 284 / 54652.8%52%177 / 335 vs 284 / 546Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StiborStibor 1.67/Adam 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Stibor · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 11:15M. Stibor561511911102L. Adam58179119123
WSep 11 · 08:43M. Stibor331111113L. Adam197750
WSep 11 · 05:15M. Stibor4111811113L. Adam36911971
LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor37681491L. Adam45111112113
WSep 3 · 05:15M. Stibor45117511113L. Adam3521111562
LAug 26 · 05:45M. Stibor35711981L. Adam4011711113
WAug 20 · 07:45M. Stibor3911611113L. Adam33711781
LAug 19 · 09:45M. Stibor4611711892L. Adam42511411113
WJul 28 · 11:45M. Stibor511411105113L. Adam49126121182
LJul 21 · 06:15M. Stibor41141111322L. Adam48166411113
M. Stibor10
LSep 21 · 12:21M. Zelinka1.331111113M. Stibor3.256860LSep 21 · 10:15M. Stibor1.739580R. Pisa2.001111113WSep 21 · 09:15M. Stibor2.251111113M. Zelinka1.575780WSep 17 · 08:18M. Bouska1.53811371M. Stibor2.3811911113LSep 17 · 07:15M. Stibor1.9197110M. Bouska1.801111133LSep 17 · 06:15M. Stibor2.50811681L. Dobias1.5011711113LSep 17 · 05:15M. Stibor1.73714611122L. Veigl2.001112119143LSep 16 · 08:18O. Kaderabek2.637111110113M. Stibor1.4411981282WSep 16 · 07:15M. Stibor1.44911811113O. Kaderabek2.6311611792LSep 16 · 06:15M. Stibor1.67116101192L. Veigl2.10911129113
L. Adam10
WSep 21 · 10:45L. Adam2.38118811113M. Zelinka1.5351111662LSep 21 · 09:45L. Adam1.5315560R. Pisa2.381711113WSep 15 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73119871L. Adam2.0071111113LSep 15 · 07:15L. Adam2.009390L. Dobias1.731111113WSep 15 · 06:15L. Adam3.001171112113P. Wasik1.36311131062LSep 15 · 05:15L. Adam2.0011891192O. Kaderabek1.73411115113WSep 11 · 16:54L. Adam2.2071111123D. Gasparovic1.611188101LSep 11 · 15:45L. Adam1.67911912102M. Makara2.101171110123WSep 11 · 14:15A. Snr2.108860L. Adam1.671111113WSep 11 · 13:45D. Gasparovic1.4011981152L. Adam2.75411113113
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