TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Stibor
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117118––––
Matus Zelinka
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:06 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Matus Zelinka at 60.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 3–8 Matus Zelinka Michal Stibor has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:06What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Zelinka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Zelinka
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1727 vs Zelinka 1785
Zelinka
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 20% vs Zelinka 80%
Zelinka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 40% vs Zelinka 60%
Zelinka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor +1 · Zelinka +4
Zelinka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Zelinka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelinka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 2.25 / Zelinka 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Zelinka)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13166357
Stibor2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 17)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 25 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back25% 10 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Zelinka1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 65 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStibor3wins
AwayZelinka7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZelinka leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStibor60%3 of 5
AwayZelinka100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor5Zelinka5n = 10split evenly
S2Stibor3Zelinka7n = 10Zelinka took 7 of 10
S3Stibor5Zelinka5n = 10split evenly
S4Stibor2Zelinka7n = 9Zelinka took 7 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStiborZelinkaS − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.542.8−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 332 vs 208 / 39153%53.2%176 / 332 vs 208 / 391Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaStibor 2.25/Zelinka 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stibor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 12:48M. Stibor30116671M. Zelinka4181111113
WSep 9 · 09:45M. Stibor4311811133M. Zelinka307111111
LAug 25 · 05:15M. Stibor29109100M. Zelinka351211123
LAug 8 · 10:15M. Stibor377112171M. Zelinka5011911193
LJul 28 · 09:45M. Stibor304114111M. Zelinka4311811133
LMay 11 · 12:18M. Stibor371191341M. Zelinka46131111113
WMay 11 · 11:15M. Stibor57118178133M. Zelinka535111511112
LMay 6 · 10:15M. Stibor341210751M. Zelinka44101211113
WApr 29 · 11:45M. Stibor4011414113M. Zelinka408111291
LApr 27 · 12:00M. Stibor4891111982M. Zelinka46115811113
M. Stibor10
LSep 21 · 10:15M. Stibor1.739580R. Pisa2.001111113WSep 17 · 08:18M. Bouska1.53811371M. Stibor2.3811911113LSep 17 · 07:15M. Stibor1.9197110M. Bouska1.801111133LSep 17 · 06:15M. Stibor2.50811681L. Dobias1.5011711113LSep 17 · 05:15M. Stibor1.73714611122L. Veigl2.001112119143LSep 16 · 08:18O. Kaderabek2.637111110113M. Stibor1.4411981282WSep 16 · 07:15M. Stibor1.44911811113O. Kaderabek2.6311611792LSep 16 · 06:15M. Stibor1.67116101192L. Veigl2.10911129113LSep 16 · 05:15M. Stibor1.36811111172M. Makara3.00116135113WSep 11 · 08:43L. Adam2.107750M. Stibor1.671111113
M. Zelinka10
WSep 20 · 12:43R. Pisa2.50661181M. Zelinka1.5011116113WSep 20 · 11:15M. Zelinka1.6111611113O. Kaderabek2.20711591WSep 20 · 10:15M. Zelinka1.731111113R. Pisa2.007980WSep 20 · 09:15M. Zelinka1.9131111113M. Makara1.80118911LSep 10 · 16:44M. Zelinka1.4010690L. Svoboda2.751211113WSep 10 · 15:45L. Svoboda2.503990M. Zelinka1.501111113LSep 10 · 14:45J. Sr1.8311126113M. Zelinka1.837101151LSep 10 · 13:15S. Rejent2.50111146133M. Zelinka1.50741111112WSep 10 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.0012116113L. Dobias1.731091191LSep 10 · 07:45L. Dobias1.7311117113M. Zelinka2.00871191
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