TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13139336
Played Sep 16Finished
Ondrej Kaderabek
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111191181012118
Michal Stibor
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingOndrej Kaderabek above · Michal Stibor below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8
90 points drawn · the score is 8 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Ondrej Kaderabek 3–11 Michal Stibor Ondrej Kaderabek has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Stibor beat Kaderabek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Stibor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaderabek form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaderabek 2.63 / Stibor 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Stibor)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13139336
Kaderabek2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 38 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back32% 13 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Stibor1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 68 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it85% 45 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaderabek2wins
AwayStibor8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStibor leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaderabek50%2 of 4
AwayStibor100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaderabek4Stibor6n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S2Kaderabek4Stibor6n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S3Kaderabek2Stibor8n = 10Stibor took 8 of 10
S4Kaderabek3Stibor4n = 7Stibor took 4 of 7
S5Kaderabek1Stibor3n = 4Stibor took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaderabekStiborK − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.642.6−8.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaderabekStiborBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 390 vs 175 / 32751%53.5%199 / 390 vs 175 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StiborKaderabek 2.63/Stibor 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Stibor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kaderabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 07:15O. Kaderabek4411611792M. Stibor50911811113
LJun 9 · 08:44O. Kaderabek185850M. Stibor331111113
LJun 9 · 05:15O. Kaderabek30511771M. Stibor3911611113
LJun 4 · 09:30O. Kaderabek4461651252M. Stibor5711141110113
WMay 19 · 10:45O. Kaderabek42112612113M. Stibor49811111092
LMay 7 · 10:45O. Kaderabek4411116972M. Stibor49971111113
LApr 22 · 06:15O. Kaderabek1924130M. Stibor371111153
LMar 16 · 12:15O. Kaderabek32761181M. Stibor3711114113
LFeb 3 · 07:15O. Kaderabek2594120M. Stibor361111143
WJan 29 · 06:15O. Kaderabek48111111153M. Stibor394913131
O. Kaderabek10
LSep 16 · 07:15M. Stibor1.44911811113O. Kaderabek2.6311611792LSep 16 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.61115111172M. Makara2.20911138113WSep 16 · 05:45O. Kaderabek2.101211910113L. Veigl1.67108111282LSep 15 · 08:48O. Kaderabek2.75111113592P. Wasik1.40691511113LSep 15 · 07:45P. Wasik1.4011119113O. Kaderabek2.75981191WSep 15 · 06:45L. Dobias1.8013391172O. Kaderabek1.911111115113WSep 15 · 05:15L. Adam2.0011891192O. Kaderabek1.73411115113LSep 13 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.36111111123O. Kaderabek3.009135101LSep 13 · 07:15O. Kaderabek3.25511851J. Chalupa1.3311811113LSep 13 · 06:15O. Kaderabek1.918580D. Gasparovic1.801111113
M. Stibor10
WSep 16 · 07:15M. Stibor1.44911811113O. Kaderabek2.6311611792LSep 16 · 06:15M. Stibor1.67116101192L. Veigl2.10911129113LSep 16 · 05:15M. Stibor1.36811111172M. Makara3.00116135113WSep 11 · 08:43L. Adam2.107750M. Stibor1.671111113WSep 11 · 07:15M. Stibor1.801111114123L. Svoboda1.91813511102LSep 11 · 06:15M. Stibor2.1064100L. Dobias1.671111123WSep 11 · 05:15M. Stibor1.6711811113L. Adam2.10911971LSep 9 · 12:48M. Zelinka1.6781111113M. Stibor2.10116671WSep 9 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.80114471M. Stibor1.9161111113WSep 9 · 10:45M. Stibor2.2011811113L. Dobias1.61311691
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