TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142656
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Stibor
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811117611811––
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 55.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 10–18 Ladislav Dobias Michal Stibor has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-18 in 28
Dobias
Correct
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1718 vs Dobias 1752
Dobias
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 20% vs Dobias 40%
Dobias
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 40% vs Dobias 60%
Dobias
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor -2 · Dobias +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Dobias) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 2.50 / Dobias 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Dobias)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142656
Stibor2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 24 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Dobias1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 200 of 347
Up 2–0, closes it95% 69 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it79% 141 of 179
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStibor4wins
AwayDobias6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStibor75%3 of 4
AwayDobias83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S2Stibor4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S3Stibor6Dobias4n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S4Stibor4Dobias3n = 7Stibor took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStiborDobiasS − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.036.6−2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 331 vs 421 / 75752.9%55.6%175 / 331 vs 421 / 757Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.441.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasStibor 2.50/Dobias 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 06:15M. Stibor33811681L. Dobias4011711113
LSep 11 · 06:15M. Stibor2064100L. Dobias341111123
WSep 9 · 10:45M. Stibor4111811113L. Dobias29311691
LAug 25 · 06:15M. Stibor195680L. Dobias331111113
WAug 20 · 06:45M. Stibor44111111113L. Dobias38913791
LJul 21 · 05:15M. Stibor42411101162L. Dobias49116129113
LJul 20 · 06:15M. Stibor3411611242L. Dobias48711811113
WJun 11 · 06:45M. Stibor4291111113L. Dobias34117881
WJun 9 · 06:15M. Stibor331111113L. Dobias219750
LJun 8 · 09:15M. Stibor32691161L. Dobias4011117113
M. Stibor10
LSep 17 · 07:15M. Stibor1.9197110M. Bouska1.801111133LSep 17 · 05:15M. Stibor1.73714611122L. Veigl2.001112119143LSep 16 · 08:18O. Kaderabek2.637111110113M. Stibor1.4411981282WSep 16 · 07:15M. Stibor1.44911811113O. Kaderabek2.6311611792LSep 16 · 06:15M. Stibor1.67116101192L. Veigl2.10911129113LSep 16 · 05:15M. Stibor1.36811111172M. Makara3.00116135113WSep 11 · 08:43L. Adam2.107750M. Stibor1.671111113WSep 11 · 07:15M. Stibor1.801111114123L. Svoboda1.91813511102LSep 11 · 06:15M. Stibor2.1064100L. Dobias1.671111123WSep 11 · 05:15M. Stibor1.6711811113L. Adam2.10911971
L. Dobias10
WSep 17 · 05:45M. Bouska1.61161212772L. Dobias2.2014101411113LSep 15 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73119871L. Adam2.0071111113WSep 15 · 07:15L. Adam2.009390L. Dobias1.731111113LSep 15 · 06:45L. Dobias1.8013391172O. Kaderabek1.911111115113LSep 15 · 05:45L. Dobias1.80411841P. Wasik1.9111611113WSep 14 · 08:53M. Vyskocil2.205790L. Dobias1.611111113WSep 14 · 07:45L. Dobias1.7310111011113M. Vyskocil2.0012812572LSep 14 · 06:15L. Rulc2.2571111153L. Dobias1.571169131WSep 14 · 05:45T. Liska2.38871151L. Dobias1.5311119113WSep 11 · 06:15M. Stibor2.1064100L. Dobias1.671111123
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