TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126404
Played Sep 14Finished
Tomas Liska
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711119511––
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Liska above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 61.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Liska 14–13 Ladislav Dobias Ladislav Dobias has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:45What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-13 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Liska 1718 vs Dobias 1733
Dobias
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Liska 40% vs Dobias 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Liska 60% vs Dobias 40%
Liska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Liska +1 · Dobias +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLiska 2.38 / Dobias 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Dobias)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13126404
Liska2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 80 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back19% 22 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Dobias1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 199 of 345
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 140 of 176
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLiska4wins
AwayDobias6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLiska75%3 of 4
AwayDobias83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Liska4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S2Liska4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S3Liska3Dobias7n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S4Liska5Dobias3n = 8Liska took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLiskaDobiasL − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.640.6−2.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLiskaDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime399 / 865 vs 415 / 74746.1%55.6%399 / 865 vs 415 / 747Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.341.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasLiska 2.38/Dobias 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 05:45T. Liska36811981L. Dobias4011711113
LAug 12 · 06:45T. Liska31611771L. Dobias4211911113
LAug 5 · 06:45T. Liska4311841192L. Dobias46711116113
WAug 4 · 08:43T. Liska597111315133L. Dobias581181513112
WAug 4 · 06:45T. Liska3911611113L. Dobias35711981
LJul 24 · 08:18T. Liska37811991L. Dobias4011711113
WJul 24 · 07:15T. Liska45121012113L. Dobias4010121081
LJun 10 · 17:45T. Liska28111070L. Dobias361312113
WJun 4 · 05:30T. Liska4111711123L. Dobias358116101
LJun 2 · 08:53T. Liska2781090L. Dobias341112113
T. Liska10
LSep 14 · 06:45T. Liska2.009680M. Vyskocil1.731111113WSep 13 · 11:45T. Liska2.251611113M. Makara1.5714890LSep 13 · 10:15M. Vyskocil1.7311119113T. Liska2.00591121WSep 13 · 09:45O. Mezera3.0071181282T. Liska1.361171110113LSep 8 · 12:58L. Veigl1.911111113T. Liska1.807690LSep 8 · 12:00T. Liska2.101015771L. Veigl1.67121311113WSep 8 · 10:30R. Pisa1.6197111182T. Liska2.20111184113WSep 8 · 10:00M. Makara1.6761170T. Liska2.101113113LSep 4 · 08:48T. Liska1.91911981M. Vyskocil1.8011811113WSep 4 · 07:45M. Vyskocil1.73101090T. Liska2.001212113
L. Dobias10
LSep 14 · 06:15L. Rulc2.2571111153L. Dobias1.571169131WSep 11 · 08:13L. Dobias1.6111117133L. Svoboda2.207911111LSep 11 · 07:45L. Dobias1.737990L. Adam2.001111113WSep 11 · 06:15M. Stibor2.1064100L. Dobias1.671111123LSep 11 · 05:45L. Svoboda2.25115129113L. Dobias1.57511101142LSep 10 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.0012116113L. Dobias1.731091191WSep 10 · 07:45L. Dobias1.7311117113M. Zelinka2.00871191WSep 10 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8351170L. Dobias1.831113113LSep 10 · 05:45L. Heinzl2.25111011113L. Dobias1.57812981LSep 9 · 12:19L. Dobias1.5381410131L. Svoboda2.38111212153
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