TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Stibor
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511811––––
Radovan Pisa
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Stibor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Michal Stibor at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 8–9 Radovan Pisa Michal Stibor has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:39What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stibor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1743 vs Pisa 1738
Stibor
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 40% vs Pisa 60%
Pisa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 40% vs Pisa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor +2 · Pisa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stibor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stibor form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 1.73 / Pisa 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stibor)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13166278
Stibor1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 65 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it82% 44 of 54
Pisa2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 79 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back29% 29 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStibor5wins
AwayPisa5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStiborn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPisa50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor2Pisa8n = 10Pisa took 8 of 10
S2Stibor7Pisa3n = 10Stibor took 7 of 10
S3Stibor4Pisa6n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S4Stibor7Pisa2n = 9Stibor took 7 of 9
S5Stibor2Pisa3n = 5Pisa took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStiborPisaS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.138.9+2.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 333 vs 380 / 78453.2%48.5%177 / 333 vs 380 / 784Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StiborStibor 1.73/Pisa 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stibor · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 7 · 06:15M. Stibor521111101192R. Pisa45313126113
WMay 19 · 12:43M. Stibor47711611123R. Pisa41113116102
WMay 19 · 11:45M. Stibor4011117113R. Pisa33971161
WMay 12 · 06:15M. Stibor481011115113R. Pisa4212551192
LMay 11 · 09:45M. Stibor41311101162R. Pisa45114127113
WApr 16 · 09:45M. Stibor3521111113R. Pisa32117681
WFeb 9 · 13:30M. Stibor4181111113R. Pisa31117761
LFeb 9 · 12:30M. Stibor51910121192R. Pisa471112103113
LJan 8 · 08:15M. Stibor2385100R. Pisa341111123
LNov 18 · 10:45M. Stibor33811951R. Pisa3911611113
M. Stibor10
WSep 21 · 09:15M. Stibor2.251111113M. Zelinka1.575780WSep 17 · 08:18M. Bouska1.53811371M. Stibor2.3811911113LSep 17 · 07:15M. Stibor1.9197110M. Bouska1.801111133LSep 17 · 06:15M. Stibor2.50811681L. Dobias1.5011711113LSep 17 · 05:15M. Stibor1.73714611122L. Veigl2.001112119143LSep 16 · 08:18O. Kaderabek2.637111110113M. Stibor1.4411981282WSep 16 · 07:15M. Stibor1.44911811113O. Kaderabek2.6311611792LSep 16 · 06:15M. Stibor1.67116101192L. Veigl2.10911129113LSep 16 · 05:15M. Stibor1.36811111172M. Makara3.00116135113WSep 11 · 08:43L. Adam2.107750M. Stibor1.671111113
R. Pisa10
WSep 21 · 09:45L. Adam1.5315560R. Pisa2.381711113LSep 20 · 12:43R. Pisa2.50661181M. Zelinka1.5011116113WSep 20 · 11:45R. Pisa1.671111113M. Makara2.106990LSep 20 · 10:15M. Zelinka1.731111113R. Pisa2.007980WSep 20 · 09:45O. Kaderabek1.91911941R. Pisa1.8011911113LSep 18 · 08:29M. Makara1.9111711123R. Pisa1.808118101LSep 18 · 07:15P. Fencl2.5081111113R. Pisa1.50117991LSep 18 · 06:45R. Pisa1.7312411982M. Kocvara2.001011611113WSep 18 · 05:45R. Pisa1.731111516113M. Makara2.00613111462LSep 15 · 09:04R. Pisa1.8376100L. Rulc1.831111123
Upcoming Matches
M. Stibor
Nothing scheduled
R. Pisa
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