TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Radovan Pisa
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119119––––
Michal Makara
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:46 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeRadovan Pisa to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadovan Pisa above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 57 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Radovan Pisa at 56.2%
57 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Pisa 39–31 Michal Makara Michal Makara has won 31 of their 70 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pisa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-31 in 70
Pisa
Correct
gap of 8 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pisa 1724 vs Makara 1669
Pisa
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pisa 20% vs Makara 40%
Makara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pisa 50% vs Makara 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pisa -1 · Makara -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Pisa) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pisa form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPisa 1.67 / Makara 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Pisa)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13162013
Pisa1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 79 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it88% 36 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it65% 58 of 89
Makara2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 154 of 340
Down 0–1, comes back25% 45 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePisa5wins
AwayMakara5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePisa66.7%4 of 6
AwayMakara75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pisa6Makara4n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S2Pisa5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S3Pisa4Makara6n = 10Makara took 6 of 10
S4Pisa6Makara3n = 9Pisa took 6 of 9
S5Pisa2Makara3n = 5Makara took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPisaMakaraP − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.742.7+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPisaMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 786 vs 501 / 105348.6%47.6%382 / 786 vs 501 / 1053Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PisaPisa 1.67/Makara 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Pisa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 11:45R. Pisa331111113M. Makara246990
LSep 18 · 08:29R. Pisa378118101M. Makara4111711123
WSep 18 · 05:45R. Pisa541111516113M. Makara50613111462
LSep 14 · 16:43R. Pisa4581361172M. Makara511111117113
WSep 14 · 15:45R. Pisa4313712113M. Makara4011111081
LSep 8 · 12:29R. Pisa49891111102M. Makara47111185123
WSep 8 · 11:30R. Pisa45111111123M. Makara377713101
LAug 31 · 07:15R. Pisa5511111011122M. Makara54813127143
LAug 28 · 08:28R. Pisa37119981M. Makara3961111113
WAug 28 · 07:30R. Pisa491111115113M. Makara4413591162
R. Pisa10
LSep 20 · 10:15M. Zelinka1.731111113R. Pisa2.007980WSep 20 · 09:45O. Kaderabek1.91911941R. Pisa1.8011911113LSep 18 · 08:29M. Makara1.9111711123R. Pisa1.808118101LSep 18 · 07:15P. Fencl2.5081111113R. Pisa1.50117991LSep 18 · 06:45R. Pisa1.7312411982M. Kocvara2.001011611113WSep 18 · 05:45R. Pisa1.731111516113M. Makara2.00613111462LSep 15 · 09:04R. Pisa1.8376100L. Rulc1.831111123WSep 15 · 08:00R. Pisa1.73311811113J. Senk2.0011811752WSep 15 · 06:30M. Ullman1.837111361R. Pisa1.8311915113WSep 15 · 06:00L. Rulc1.9189120R. Pisa1.801111143
M. Makara10
WSep 20 · 12:14M. Makara2.0261111113O. Kaderabek1.70117371LSep 20 · 10:45O. Kaderabek1.6751111123M. Makara2.101188101LSep 20 · 09:15M. Zelinka1.9131111113M. Makara1.80118911WSep 19 · 20:19M. Makara2.631113113L. Svoboda1.4431180LSep 19 · 19:45L. Veigl2.20811117123M. Makara1.61118211102WSep 19 · 18:45V. Burylov1.83118114102M. Makara1.83411711123LSep 19 · 17:15L. Svoboda1.53111112M. Makara2.389710WSep 18 · 08:29M. Makara1.9111711123R. Pisa1.808118101LSep 18 · 07:45M. Makara2.2071113992M. Kocvara1.611191111113LSep 18 · 05:45R. Pisa1.731111516113M. Makara2.00613111462
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