TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155281
Played Sep 19Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 0
Set by set
11911711––––
Michal Makara
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeLukas Svoboda to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 1-1
Point 40 set 3, 1-1 — our read held Lukas Svoboda at 63.2%
40 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 9–3 Michal Makara Michal Makara has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Svoboda
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1725 vs Makara 1688
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 80% vs Makara 60%
Svoboda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 60% vs Makara 40%
Svoboda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +2 · Makara +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Svoboda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.53 / Makara 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Svoboda)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155281
Svoboda1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 27 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it76% 19 of 25
Makara2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 154 of 342
Down 0–1, comes back25% 45 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda7wins
AwayMakara3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda71.4%5 of 7
AwayMakara33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda7Makara3n = 10Svoboda took 7 of 10
S2Svoboda6Makara4n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S3Svoboda5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S4Svoboda2Makara4n = 6Makara took 4 of 6
S5Svoboda4Makara1n = 5Svoboda took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaMakaraS − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.436.6+3.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 167 vs 499 / 104747.3%47.7%79 / 167 vs 499 / 1047Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.53/Makara 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–0
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 09:15L. Svoboda5411121010113M. Makara45410121272
WSep 12 · 12:46L. Svoboda361411113M. Makara2512940
LSep 12 · 11:45L. Svoboda28116561M. Makara4181111113
WJul 6 · 14:45L. Svoboda331111113M. Makara169610
WJun 22 · 08:18L. Svoboda46512117113M. Makara43111061152
WJun 22 · 05:15L. Svoboda50681411113M. Makara45111112832
WJun 21 · 10:15L. Svoboda331111113M. Makara228590
LFeb 19 · 08:15L. Svoboda239860M. Makara331111113
WSep 1 · 06:45L. Svoboda5612111210113M. Makara49105141282
LAug 24 · 20:45L. Svoboda45116711102M. Makara47711116123
L. Svoboda10
LSep 19 · 18:15L. Svoboda1.6781180L. Veigl2.101113113WSep 18 · 13:09T. Liska2.101071161L. Svoboda1.6712117113WSep 18 · 11:30L. Svoboda2.2013114143L. Dobias1.6111911121LSep 18 · 10:30L. Svoboda1.6141113762V. Burylov2.201141111113WSep 18 · 09:30L. Svoboda1.67111145113T. Liska2.1093111162WSep 17 · 12:48O. Kaderabek1.6111711852L. Svoboda2.20811611113WSep 17 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.67611611113T. Liska2.1011811592LSep 17 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.101071181O. Kaderabek1.6712116113WSep 17 · 09:15L. Svoboda1.5311121010113M. Makara2.38410121272LSep 13 · 08:54L. Svoboda2.7511850D. Gasparovic1.401311113
M. Makara10
WSep 18 · 08:29M. Makara1.9111711123R. Pisa1.808118101LSep 18 · 07:45M. Makara2.2071113992M. Kocvara1.611191111113WSep 18 · 06:15P. Fencl2.25111011972M. Makara1.57812711113LSep 18 · 05:45R. Pisa1.731111516113M. Makara2.00613111462WSep 17 · 12:18M. Makara1.67117117113T. Liska2.1041181192LSep 17 · 11:45O. Kaderabek1.61611118113M. Makara2.2011691172LSep 17 · 10:45T. Liska2.2511117113M. Makara1.57791131LSep 17 · 09:15L. Svoboda1.5311121010113M. Makara2.38410121272LSep 16 · 08:44M. Makara2.001171112152L. Veigl1.731311710173WSep 16 · 07:45L. Veigl1.8311710M. Makara1.831311113
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