TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148395
Played Sep 18Finished
Pavel Fencl
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181012117911711
Michal Makara
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Makara to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Fencl above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 97 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Michal Makara at 60.1%
97 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Fencl 4–8 Michal Makara Pavel Fencl has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:21What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Makara
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Makara
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fencl 1598 vs Makara 1657
Makara
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fencl 60% vs Makara 20%
Fencl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fencl 50% vs Makara 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fencl +3 · Makara -1
Fencl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Makara)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFencl 2.25 / Makara 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Makara)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13148395
Fencl2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog39% won 7 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Makara1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 42 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFencl3wins
AwayMakara7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMakara leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFencl50%3 of 6
AwayMakara100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fencl6Makara4n = 10Fencl took 6 of 10
S2Fencl6Makara4n = 10Fencl took 6 of 10
S3Fencl4Makara6n = 10Makara took 6 of 10
S4Fencl2Makara5n = 7Makara took 5 of 7
S5Fencl0Makara3n = 3Makara took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFenclMakaraF − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.541.0−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFenclMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 78 vs 501 / 104948.7%47.8%38 / 78 vs 501 / 1049Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MakaraFencl 2.25/Makara 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Makara · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 18 · 06:15P. Fencl48111011972M. Makara49812711113
LJul 8 · 07:00P. Fencl395131381M. Makara48111511113
LJun 30 · 06:45P. Fencl229580M. Makara331111113
LJun 27 · 12:43P. Fencl36911791M. Makara3911611113
WJun 27 · 11:45P. Fencl381115123M. Makara30713100
WSep 5 · 13:45P. Fencl4314117113M. Makara391281181
LAug 9 · 09:15P. Fencl4611781192M. Makara46711116113
LJul 5 · 10:15P. Fencl44111110482M. Makara44641211113
P. Fencl10
WSep 18 · 07:15P. Fencl2.5081111113R. Pisa1.50117991WSep 18 · 05:15P. Fencl2.5013118113M. Kocvara1.501151121WSep 4 · 08:19J. Senk2.107960P. Fencl1.671111113WSep 4 · 07:15P. Fencl1.7311811113J. Senk2.00911781LSep 4 · 06:15P. Fencl2.201111115102M. Vyskocil1.61613911123LSep 4 · 05:15P. Fencl1.8011111010102T. Liska1.91761212123LAug 27 · 08:18P. Fencl1.73917781M. Ullman2.00111511113LAug 27 · 07:45V. Grubr2.1041115113P. Fencl1.671171341LAug 27 · 06:45M. Vyskocil1.9181111113P. Fencl1.80118331WAug 27 · 05:15M. Ullman1.738480P. Fencl2.001111113
M. Makara10
LSep 18 · 05:45R. Pisa1.731111516113M. Makara2.00613111462WSep 17 · 12:18M. Makara1.67117117113T. Liska2.1041181192LSep 17 · 11:45O. Kaderabek1.61611118113M. Makara2.2011691172LSep 17 · 10:45T. Liska2.2511117113M. Makara1.57791131LSep 17 · 09:15L. Svoboda1.5311121010113M. Makara2.38410121272LSep 16 · 08:44M. Makara2.001171112152L. Veigl1.731311710173WSep 16 · 07:45L. Veigl1.8311710M. Makara1.831311113WSep 16 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.61115111172M. Makara2.20911138113WSep 16 · 05:15M. Stibor1.36811111172M. Makara3.00116135113WSep 14 · 16:43M. Makara1.911111117113R. Pisa1.8081361172
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