TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142737
Played Sep 17Finished
Tomas Liska
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117119711113––
Michal Makara
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Makara to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Liska above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 70 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Michal Makara at 59.3%
70 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Liska 45–49 Michal Makara Tomas Liska has won 45 of their 94 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:24What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Makara
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-49 in 94
Makara
Wrong
gap of 4 in 94, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Liska 1649 vs Makara 1667
Makara
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Liska 20% vs Makara 60%
Makara
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Liska 30% vs Makara 50%
Makara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Liska -2 · Makara -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Makara)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Liska form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLiska 2.25 / Makara 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Makara)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142737
Liska2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 80 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back19% 23 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Makara1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 41 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it71% 29 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLiska4wins
AwayMakara6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMakara leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLiska75%3 of 4
AwayMakara83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Liska4Makara6n = 10Makara took 6 of 10
S2Liska6Makara4n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S3Liska7Makara3n = 10Liska took 7 of 10
S4Liska1Makara6n = 7Makara took 6 of 7
S5Liska2Makara3n = 5Makara took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLiskaMakaraL − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.441.9+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLiskaMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 870 vs 500 / 104746.1%47.8%401 / 870 vs 500 / 1047Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MakaraLiska 2.25/Makara 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Makara · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Liska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 10:00T. Liska351113113M. Makara2461170
WAug 29 · 09:30T. Liska561111149113M. Makara47313121182
LAug 20 · 09:30T. Liska51713111192M. Makara55111599113
LAug 15 · 15:45T. Liska491011117102M. Makara48125811123
LAug 8 · 17:15T. Liska359101151M. Makara4311129113
LAug 3 · 15:45T. Liska2814770M. Makara381611113
WAug 1 · 12:54T. Liska53815118113M. Makara50111371182
LAug 1 · 09:15T. Liska5611121112102M. Makara523101314123
LJul 28 · 08:58T. Liska388119101M. Makara3811411123
WJul 28 · 08:00T. Liska331111113M. Makara248880
T. Liska10
LSep 17 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.67611611113T. Liska2.1011811592LSep 17 · 09:45T. Liska2.1011101110102O. Kaderabek1.67712912123LSep 15 · 12:44M. Kocvara2.5071211113T. Liska1.501110341WSep 15 · 11:45T. Liska1.731111113M. Kocvara2.004960LSep 15 · 10:15M. Vyskocil1.5771111113T. Liska2.25115861LSep 15 · 09:45J. Dolezal2.001111113T. Liska1.737890LSep 14 · 08:23T. Liska2.107990L. Rulc1.671111113WSep 14 · 07:15L. Rulc1.7311510111T. Liska2.0071112133LSep 14 · 06:45T. Liska2.009680M. Vyskocil1.731111113LSep 14 · 05:45T. Liska2.38871151L. Dobias1.5311119113
M. Makara10
LSep 17 · 09:15L. Svoboda1.5311121010113M. Makara2.38410121272LSep 16 · 08:44M. Makara2.001171112152L. Veigl1.731311710173WSep 16 · 07:45L. Veigl1.8311710M. Makara1.831311113WSep 16 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.61115111172M. Makara2.20911138113WSep 16 · 05:15M. Stibor1.36811111172M. Makara3.00116135113WSep 14 · 16:43M. Makara1.911111117113R. Pisa1.8081361172LSep 14 · 15:45R. Pisa1.7313712113M. Makara2.0011111081LSep 14 · 14:45S. Rejent1.67131158113M. Makara2.10116111182WSep 14 · 13:15O. Mezera2.2069111582M. Makara1.611111813113LSep 13 · 11:45T. Liska2.251611113M. Makara1.5714890
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